Globalist and the Fringe

Whenever I see the word “Globalist” in an article title, I know I should not continue to read it. It is bad for my mental health to continue. But like bad late night TV, sometimes I can’t help myself. Consider the recent article by alt-market entitled, “Globalist are Bringing Their One World Currency Plans Out Into the Open“. He states the following:

In the past I have said that when globalist criminals stop trying to hide their criminality – when they start to become brazen in their rhetoric and agenda, that is when it is time for people to worry. Why? Because when criminals act more confident it is usually because they think they have already gotten away with it. Their plans are almost complete.
Over the past year, the globalists have become absolutely brazen in flaunting their endgame for a single global currency system. Yes, it is time to be concerned. But there are people out there who will tell you that the notion is “far fetched”. They will tell you that it is “doom porn”, and they will tell you it is “conspiracy theory”.
The evidence says otherwise. The evidence says it is conspiracy FACT.

The rest of the article is rhetoric and assertions. He does not highlight any facts. He than begins to list what he considers fallacies.

Fallacy #1: The Globalists Need The Dollar To Maintain Power
This is patently untrue. The dollar is nothing, just like any other fiat currency system. It is a fabrication, a fantasy. Its value is an arbitrary product of manipulated forex markets. Its buying power has dwindled to a shadow of its former glory in the past century. The globalists have resided over the life and death of multiple reserve currencies, and the dollar is no different.

The dollar is a medium of exchange. When you go to the store and buy milk you use dollars. If the author believes the dollar is nothing, he would have no problem withdrawing his accounts and have a bonfire with them.
One of the greatest advancements in economic thought was the idea that all value is subjective. This theory was advanced by William Stanley Jevons and Carl Menger. This theory has been accepted by every school of economic thought. The author claims that this is not true. He claims that the USD value is an arbitrary product of manipulated forex markets. The forex market is the most liquid market in the world and has daily transactions in the trillions per day. In short, it is a massive free market of currency exchanges. Other countries peg their currency to the USD and intervene in the free-market. This is nothing new. These countries are subsidizing their export industry. They are hurting their citizens to help the American consumer. This, along with other factors, has resulted in the dollar dominating FX reserves.
This 60 plus percent share has been true for decades. The author does not show you this chart. He hints at it below, but does not show you the steady trend.

Fallacy #2: There Is No Other Currency Mechanism In The World That Can Take The Dollar’s Place
This fallacy relies on two assumptions – One, that no currency has the liquidity to match the dollar and fill the void in global trade if it were to fall. Two, the majority of reserves held in central banks around the world are denominated in dollars, therefore a replacement is unlikely because the world is “used to paying with dollars”.
First, liquidity is meaningless. Liquidity in any currency can be created on a whim. In fact, the Chinese have been ramping up the liquidity of the Yuan for the past ten years. Trillions in Yuan have been conjured from nothing, which is a development I have warned about repeatedly along with the Yuan’s inclusion into the IMF’s SDR basket.
This is not to say I think the Yuan will replace the dollar as the world reserve, far from it. That honor will go to another mechanism entirely, which we will discuss in a moment. The point is, fiat currencies are not limited by their liquidity, they are only limited by the restrictions that central banks set upon them. If global central banks decide in unison that they will dump the dollar as the world reserve and use another currency, then that is exactly what will happen. Liquidity can be created with the push of a button.
When one accepts the fact that the Bank for International Settlements dictates and coordinates the policies of all major central banks, then the idea that they might all drop the dollar as the world reserve at the same time becomes less difficult to grasp.
Second, as mentioned above, the vast majority of central bank forex holdings used to be in sterling, and yet, the sterling was toppled and the dollar became the world reserve very quickly.

Liquidity of the forex and currency pairs has to do with the amount of traders active in the market. The US dollar is the most actively traded currency. This is a fact. This is a function of the free-market.
First he says “liquidity is meaningless”. In the next sentence he says ” the Chinese have been ramping up the liquidity of the Yuan”. I am confused. Is it meaningless or not?
Just because a central bank creates more of a currency does not mean more people are going to trade it. If this was true, the Venezuelan bolivar would be the most liquid currency on the planet.
Why would central bankers get together to dump US dollars all at once? There is no reason why this would happen. These countries that peg to the US dollar are mercantilist. This keeps the US dollar as the king of FX reserves. The author gives no justification why central banks would coordinate to do this. He gives no indication why these mercantilist policies of foreign governments will end. This has been going on for almost a 100 years and there is zero signs of it changing.
Comparing the US to Britain after WW II is a leap. Europe was in ashes after WWII. The US, besides Pearl Harbor, was untouched. There is no parallel to the events that led to the Sterling losings its reserve status to the US dollar today.

Fallacy #3: The Globalists Already Have Total Control Through The Dollar, So Why Would They Change Anything?
This argument generally comes from people who have no understanding of the psychology of economics and the psychology of power.
First and foremost, the federal reserve and the dollar are merely a franchise of a larger system; they are but one tentacle writhing from the body of the globalist vampire squid. In the pyramid of banking power, the Fed is an errand boy, a workhorse, that is all. At the top if the pyramid sits the major global institutions which control policy, including the IMF, the BIS, World Bank and the UN.

Strictly speaking, economics does not have a psychology. Individuals have a psychology. Economics picks up where the study of psychology leaves it. An economist is only concerned that a person chooses “A” over “B”. Why a person chooses “A” over “B” is the job of the psychologist.
The BIS is a clearing house for central bankers. I don’t know what he means when he says the BIS controls policies. The UN, IMF and World Bank are gigantic bureaucracies. They have no teeth. Bureaucracies hate to be told what to do by other bureaucracies. This is why some central banks are expanding their balance sheets and other contracting. Do central bankers get together and talk to one another? Sure they do. But so what? This is nothing new.
He than makes the stupidest of all his claims. The SDR is going to become a world currency to replace the dollar.

The SDR’s role as a bridge is also being confirmed in the mainstream. In 2017, globalist Mohamed El-Erian called for the SDR to act as a structure for a one world currency system, and stated that this would be useful in combating “the rise of populism”.

The ‘value’ of the SDR, is primarily composed of US dollars. The author claims that the USD is going down. In the same article he claims the SDR, which a large component of its value is derived from the USD, is going to take its place. You see the logic in this?

Every ideology has a fringe. This is an example of the right-wing fringe. He is talking about a subject he knows nothing about. When you see the word “Globalist”, run for the hills.

Green Light On the Bull Market

I am still bullish on the US markets. I do not believe a recession is going to happen this year. The yield curve inversion hysteria promoted by the media last month is nonsense. These people do not know what they are talking about. There are zero signs of an imminent recession. The consumer is healthy. The credit market is healthy. No stresses are forming. US stocks posted their best first quarter performance since 1987. The doom and gloom websites are going to be wrong…again.
I am still a bull on the Chinese market. Chinese data, for what it’s worth, is turning positive. Entering the Chinese market is low risk high reward. Same for the emerging markets.
Europe is still a disaster. I have no interest in it. The bureaucrats should just recap the banking system or let everyone default. This has been going on for 10 years now. At some point, these band-aids are not going to be enough. It is hard for me to believe that during the next global recession, the Euro will survive in its current form.

All Hail King Dollar

I read my share of worthless articles per day. For instance, every now and than a a handful of characters in the “dollar is going to collapse” crowd stick their head out of their basement and  begin to write about how the Chinese currency (the renminbi) is going to take over the US dollar as the world reserve currency. They offer crumbs of evidence. Silly swaps or trade agreements that amount to peanuts. They do not show their readers the world currency composition of FX reserves. See below.

That 62% share of US Dollars amounts to 6.6 trillion dollars. That’s Trillion with a capital ‘T’. Shares of US dollars bounces around between 60% to 66% for the past two decades. Shares of Chinese Renminbi amount to less than 2%. Russia’s share is so insignificant it does not even warrant its own entry. The next greatest ‘threat’ to US dollar ‘hegemony’ is the Euro. That’s where the theater of the absurd is being played out with the Brexit and Theresa May.
Yet, there are authors who spend their time sounding off the siren about the Chinese Renminbi and the US dollar. I am not saying the US dollar will always be the reserve currency. I am saying there is nothing to indicate this is going to change any time soon.

Yield Curve is Inverting-Danger?

The 10 year minus the 3 month has inverted. This sent the market into a nose dive. First a little history.

The shaded area indicates a recession. As can be seen above, the yield curve has a PHD in economics. I consider the yield curve is a reliable indicator of a recession. See my post here, here and here. Fifteen years ago, it was me and about 12 other people in the world that understand the power of the yield curve and its ability to predict recessions. Now everyone is talking about it. Just look at the “popular series” at the FRED.

Every website and news program, including the mainstream sites, is talking about the yield curve. When my little sister calls me to ask me about it, the circle will be complete.
Banks borrow short and lend long. When the yield curve inverts, this tends to put stress on the banks and crashes the money supply. I am of the view that this inversion will not last. There is no doubt in my mind, that all this talk about the yield curve has bubbled up to the FOMC members. The Fed doesn’t currently own any Treasury’s with maturities of one year or less, which represent 15% of outstanding Treasury securities. Interestingly enough, over the past few months some FOMC members (like Esther George) have been talking about moving some of the long dated bonds into shorter term treasuries. This will reflect the traditional balance sheet of the Fed prior to 2008.
The only reason the Fed has their balance sheet structured the way it does is from the mad monetary scientist Ben Bernanke. The famous “Operation Twist”, sold all the short dated Treasury securities and bought all long dated ones.

To this day, I am not sure what the point of doing this was. There was never any clear indication from the Fed that it was meant to accomplish anything.
So if the FOMC is going to move into the shorter term maturities, this will make the yield curve become very steep since they will be selling the longer dated ones and buying the shorter dated ones.
All of this is speculation at this point. No one knows what the Fed is going to do. I have serious doubt they know what they are going to do. If the yield curve keeps inverting it will begin to put stress on the banks and the data will reflect this. I want to emphasize there is a serious delay in all of this. From the time the yield curve inverts, to the time the data will show stress building, to the time the economy sinks. Remember, the yield curve inverted back in 2006 and it was not until almost 2 years later the stock market broke. The next few months will be very interesting.

Emerging Markets-Time to Buy

I have added emerging markets in the performance tab. This is risky but I am willing to jump into the market at these low prices. I believe the worst of the Chinese bear market is over. The Chinese government has been deregulating its regulatory burden on the tech sector. Additionally, the existing rally off the lows is not driven by margin debt. This is a positive sign.
The market should find support throughout this year by expansion of Chinese equities in the indexes constructed by MSCI. This will open up a lot of foreign buying for Chinese equities.

I don’t have any plans to buy European shares at this time. The ECB has announced a new round of TLTRO’s. It lends money to Euro banks and charges them the ECB’s -.4% deposit rate. Put another way, the ECB is paying banks to take loans as long as they lend the funds to Euro corporations. Looking at the data, it seems there is not enough desire for those wanting the loans. The only country looking like a buy in the Euro is the UK, but I am still on the fence.

I still like the US market and tech stocks.

About Those Big Numbers

There is a web site called The Economic Collapse. I enjoy reading it. It provides some good data. However, the author can’t think straight. It asks this question at the top of its website, “Are You Prepared For The Coming Economic Collapse And The Next Great Depression?” The idea of “Economic Collapse” definitely sells. First, let me define an economic collapse. This is the situation in Venezuela right now. The author implies that something of this magnitude is going to happen here in the USA. I argue that nothing of the sort will happen in the USA any time soon. The USA still has a robust free market. Yes there is government intervention in the economy. Yes the Federal Reserve creates bubbles. In spite of all of this, each generation gets richer. The website was created in late 2009. It has been calling for an economic collapse for 10 years. You would think after being wrong for 10 years people would ignore it. The creation of this website marked the bottom of the economic cycle. The longest bull market in history followed.
The latest article (surprise, surprise) states that the USA economy is about to fall apart. It has proof of this. It provides 18 really big numbers. I will comment on a few.

#1 Farm loan delinquencies just hit the highest level that we have seen in 9 years.

Food prices are in the gutter. In real terms, they are probably at a generational low. This is more of a symptom of a struggling industry.

#2 We just learned that U.S. exports declined by 4 billion dollars during the month of December.

Trade deficits are meaningless. See below.

 

#3 J.C. Penney just announced that they will be closing another 24 stores.

This is the free market at work. Online retail stores like Amazon are putting them out of business. I hate going to the store. It takes to much time. 90% of my shopping is done online.

#4 Victoria’s Secret has just announced plans to close 53 stores.

see point #3.

#5 On Thursday, Gap announced that it will be closing 230 stores over the next two years.

See point #3.

#6 Payless ShoeSource has declared bankruptcy and is closing all 2,100 stores.

See point #3.

#7 Tesla is also closing all of their physical sales locations and will now only sell vehicles online.

See point #3.

#9 The Baltic Dry Index has dropped to the lowest level in more than two years.

The Baltic dry index is volatile. Look at it over the past 10 years. It goes up and it goes down. Additionally, the index is subject to change about how it is calculated. The author gives no reason about why he believes this drop is any different than all the other drops over the past 10 years. Nor does he provide any insightful analysis about why it dropped. There is a common tendency in the social science fields, like economics, to have a “measurement”. Fredrick Hayek wrote the following in “The Counter Revolution of Science”.

The blind transfer of the striving for quantitative measurements to a field in which the specific conditions are not present which give it its basic importance in the nature sciences, is the result of an entirely unfounded prejudiced. It is probably responsible for the worst aberrations and absurdities produced by scientism in the social sciences. It not only leads frequently to the selection for study of the most irrelevant aspects of the phenomenon because they  happen to be measurable, but also “measurements” and assignment of numerical values which are absolutely meaningless. What a distinguished philosopher recently wrote about psychology is at least equally true of the social sciences, namely, that it is only too easy “to rush off to measure something without considering what it is we are measuring, or what measurement means.”

I am not convinced the Baltic dry index measures anything worth measuring. This fact onto itself probably tells us something about the shipping industry, but nothing about the general economy.

#11 We just witnessed the largest decline in the Philly Fed Business Index in more than 7 years.

This is the same as point #9

#12 In January, sales of existing homes fell 8.9 percent from a year earlier.  That was the third month in a row that we have seen a decline of at least 8 percent.  This is an absolutely catastrophic trend for the real estate industry.

The housing market is overheated and due for a decline. This has been detailed at this site.

#13 U.S. housing starts were down 11.2 percent in December compared to the previous month.

See point #12.

#14 Compared to a year earlier, home sales in southern California were down 17 percent in January.

California housing market is a bubble. It has been detailed on this site.

#15 In December, home sales in Sacramento County fell a whopping 22.5 percent compared to a year earlier.

See point #14.

#16 Pending home sales in the United States have now fallen on a year over year basis for 13 months in a row.

See point #12.

#17 More than 166 billion dollars in student loan debt is now “seriously delinquent”.  That is an all-time record.

A bunch of fools took out a large amount of debt to get useless degrees. So what? Other delinquencies are down trending and are at a decade low. See here.

#18 More than 7 million Americans are behind on their auto loan payments.  That is also a new all-time record, and it is far higher than anything that we witnessed during the last recession.

See point #17.

Facts, per se, are useless. All that matters is the philosophy of the person looking at them. I could have easily posted 18 numbers that show a recession is not imminent. This is an example of an author who looks at data with no working philosophy of the business cycle.

Envy, Taxes and the Green New Deal

Thoughts from the envious:
“I can never achieve what you have achieved. Therefore, I want to destroy you.”
A lot of chatter has entered into the national dialogue about raising taxes on the rich. Individuals know that raising taxes on the rich will not provide any benefit to their life one way or the other. The government is going to spend what it is going to spend, regardless of its revenues. Interestingly, most of these people calling for increasing taxes on the rich also believe that government debt does not matter. There is an irreconcilable  contradiction in these two thoughts. If government debt does not matter, why should the government tax anyone? Why can’t the government just keep borrowing more money to pay off old debt and initiate new spending projects. Envy plays an important part in this thinking.

Climate Change is the new WW II.
We are told the human race is facing extinction in less than 12 years unless action is taken by federal governments around the world. We heard this 12 years ago. We heard this from Bill Mckibben in his book, “The End Of Nature” written in 1989. When I glance outside my window, I take note that nature has not ended. This racket changes every few decades. Global cooling , global warming and now climate change. The arctic was also melting in 1922.

To combat climate change requires a mobilization not seen WWII. In order to pay for this, taxes have to go back to WWII levels. Never mind that the math doesn’t add up! If “we” can pay for WWII than we can pay to fight climate change!

The highest tax bracket was above 90% during WWII, the 1950’s and 1960’s.
They never talk about the lowest tax bracket.

It went from about 1% to 23% to pay for WWII. This is left out of the debate. WWII was paid for with massive tax hikes across the board, inflation, and blood.

Why I am not worried.
I am going to tell you a secret. No matter how high the income tax rates have been, the US federal government never, EVER, has collected much more than 20% of revenue in GDP. EVER!

The individual income tax collected hovers around 8% of GDP since 1944.
Total from 1974 is shown below:

There will not be any massive tax hikes that actually collect taxes. The American public does not let the government take more than 8% of GDP from them. There is not going to be any green new deal.

The video above shows the case for optimism. The students reject it once the content of the bill is revealed. It has almost 2 million views. 30 years ago this video would have not seen the light of day. The guard keepers of information would have never aired it on NBC. For less than 100$ worth of equipment, anyone can become a journalist and post videos on YouTube for millions of people to view. I am not worried about the college girl, the green new deal or massive tax hikes.

A Premier of State Bankruptcies

Pensions are going to bust the state of Illinois. Governor Pritzker is trying to solve the problem. The proposals are listed here. You will search in vain for the real solution to the problem. Namely, to declare bankruptcy and default on the unplayable pensions. The pension cost continue to consume a larger and larger share of Illinois revenue. Illinois legislators are going to sell state buildings, roads, highways, tollways etc to fund the pensions. This is a good thing. The less the state owns, the better.
Another proposal is to raise taxes. It will not solve the problem. People are leaving the state. Thirty years ago it was difficult to leave a state. You had to search in local papers and go to in person job interviews. The internet has changed all of this. Someone half way around the country can call a potential employee and offer them a job after a Skype interview. This has accelerated the exodus from high taxed states over the last decade.
Meanwhile, those expecting to get paid their pensions in full have no plan B. They do not think the checks will ever stop. Their argument?
The state constitution guarantees their pensions.  It’s the law!
News flash: when the well runs dry it does not matter what a bunch of bureaucrats wrote on a piece of paper.

US Economy

The US economy is still strong and the US market is still my favorite. I have opened up a few recommendations in the performance tab. The market had a nice rally off the lows and took out strong overhead resistance. While the middle part of the yield curve has inverted, it is still profitable for banks to borrow short and lend long. There is nothing I see in the data that indicate stress in the banking system. Europe is still a mess. Emerging markets might be a buy later in the year.
Trade tensions between China and the US will eventually ease. This might reduce volatility in 2019. We are probably in the eight inning of this up turn in the business cycle. Until I see signs of stress, I will not issue a warning of a recession. The housing market is cooling. It was long overdue.