The Infrastructure Plan and Broken Windows

A six page draft has been released of the white houses new infrastructure plan. Every administration has the same idea. I am inclined to believe David Stockman. It is all a lie.  Put aside the fact that all of these activities should be privatized. Government spending on infrastructure is the broken window fallacy in different garb. Frederic Bastiat wrote about it in the mid 1800’s. Henry Hazlitt used this one idea for his book, “Economics in One Lesson”. Among the economic illiterate, this one idea is a plague. It won’t go away.  The video below has just under 200K viewers. I hope one day it will have 200 million.

Presidents and Stock Markets

Partisan hacks are now claiming Donald Trump is responsible for a terrific economy. Novice investors are investing based on this idea. They believe the following:
A successful businessman is now running the country.
He will run the country like a profitable company.
Therefore, I should buy stocks.

Let us start with some facts. The economy has been booming since 2010. I present a few charts to convince you I am correct about this view.

Way before Donald Trump took office the economy was already taking off. We heard from partisan hacks on the right that there was no recovery when Obama was in office. In other words, seeing is not believing.
We heard from partisan hacks on the left that if Donald Trump was elected president, there would be a stock market crash.  An entire year has passed. There has been no stock market crash.
Let me dissect each one of these claims.

A successful businessman is now running the country.
A successful businessman is the President of the US (POTUS), but he is not running the country. Presidents are powerless. What did Barack Obama accomplish that anyone remembers? Obamacare. It is falling apart as I write. Health care prices go up, up and away since the promise of the affordable health care act. Congress and the president can not get any thing done. This is a good thing. Governments can not do anything without hurting some one first. Governments have no resources. They only have what they take from others. Governments can not help group A unless they first take from group B. The only thing good the POTUS can do is undo things. This is not happening. The CFR grows by leaps and bounds each year.

He will run the country like a profitable company.
Countries can not be ran like a business. In the business world there is something called profit and loss. A business man starts a company. If he operates at a profit he is making the consumer happy. The market tells him he is allocating resources correctly. If he incurs a loss he is not allocating resources effectively. The market tells him he must change his ways. If not, he will be faced with financial ruin. Governments do not operate on profit and loss. They have no idea if they are allocating resources effectively. If governments could allocate resources effectively, the Soviet Union would have been a wonderful place to live.

Therefore, I should buy stocks.
After making two false statements they now come to a conclusion. Not surprisingly, when your conclusion is based on two false statements you risk coming to a false conclusion. Lets assume Trump is going to win the next election for the sake of argument. Do you believe a recession is not going to happen between now and seven years? If your only indicator is “Donald Trump is president”, plan to suffer a loss in your investments.

Conclusion
Buying stocks based on who is president is not wise. As demonstrated above, the president does not have much power when it comes to the economy. The Federal Reserve has always been the driving force of booms and bust.

Marx and Economics

Karl Marx had the idea that all value is derived from labor. This was not an original idea. He picked up this idea from what is now called ‘classic economics’. Mainly Adam Smith and David Ricardo. If all value comes from labor than where does profit come from? Profit must be the exploitation of the worker. The employee worked for 8 hours and only got paid for 7 hours. One hour went into the capitalist pocket. This was what Marx called ‘surplus value’.
Karl Marx correctly observed that rates of profit normalize. In his first volume of Capital, Marx promised he would solve what seemed like a contradiction in subsequent volumes. That on one hand, he believed in the labor theory of value. On the other hand, rates of profits normalize.
These two ideas don’t appear to be contradictions as Marx said. They are contradictions. If profits are the sole source of exploitation of the workers than we would see profits higher in labor intensive fields. In fact, in order for a capitalist to get more profit, the capitalist could just hire more workers. This flies right in the face of what is observed in the real world. Unfortunately for Karl Marx a man named Eugen Bohm von Bawerk lived. In Eugen Bohm von Bawerk work, Capital and interest, he attacks this idea:

Either products do really exchange, in the long run, in proportion to the labour incorporated in them, and the amount of rent in a production is really regulated by the amount of labour employed in it,-in which case an equalization of profits is impossible; or there is an equalization of the profits of capital,-in which case it is impossible that products should continue to exchange in proportion to the labour incorporated in them, and that the amount of labour spent should be the only thing that determines the amount of rent obtainable.

In other words, Bawerk said Marx would never solve this problem. Marx had Volume I of Capital published in 1867. Karl Marx died in 1883. The lie is he died before he got to finish Volume II and Volume III of Capital. The truth is Karl Marx went on to work on other subjects. Math, science, agricultural, statistics, etc. He never published a full book about economics again. He really did not publish any thing after that.
In corresponding letters between Marx and Engels, Engels pleaded with Marx to finish his books. Marx told Engels he was working on them. He had stopped working on them long ago.
After Marx died, Engels rummaged through Marx’s desk and found Capital Volume II and III. Engels edited them and published them. Eugen Bohm von Bawerk hit back hard:

MANY years ago, long before the above-mentioned prize essays on the compatibility of an equal average rate of profit with the Marxian law of value had appeared, the present writer had expressed his opinion on this subject in the following words: “Either products do actually exchange in the long run in proportion to the labor attaching to them—in which case an equalization of the gains of capital is impossible; or there is an equalization of the gains of capital—in which case it is impossible that products should continue to exchange in proportion to the labor attaching to them
From the Marxian camp the actual incompatibility of these two propositions was first acknowledged a few years ago by Conrad Schmidt. Now we have the authoritative confirmation of the master himself. He has stated concisely and precisely that an equal rate of profit is only possible when the conditions of sale are such that some commodities are sold above their value, and others under their value, and thus are not exchanged in proportion to the labor embodied in them. And neither has he left us in doubt as to which of the two irreconcilable propositions conforms in his opinion to the actual facts. He teaches, with a clearness and directness which merit our gratitude, that it is the equalization of the gains of capital. And he even goes so far as to say, with the same directness and clearness, that the several commodities do not actually exchange with each other in proportion to the labor they contain, but that they exchange in that varying proportion to the labor which is rendered necessary by the equalization of the gains of capital.
In what relation does this doctrine of the third volume stand to the celebrated law of value of the first volume ? Does it contain the solution of the seeming contradiction looked for with so much anxiety? Does it prove “how not only without contradicting the law of value, but even by virtue of it, an equal average rate of profit can and must be created”? Does it not rather contain the exact opposite of such a proof, namely, the statement of an actual irreconcilable contradiction, and does it not prove that the equal average rate of profit can only manifest itself if, and because, the alleged law of value does not hold good?
I do not think that any one who examines the matter impartially and soberly can remain long in doubt. In the first volume it was maintained, with the greatest emphasis, that all value is based on labor and labor alone, and that values of commodities were in proportion to the working time necessary for their production. These propositions were deduced and distilled directly and exclusively from the exchange relations of commodities in which they were “immanent.’ We were directed “to start from the exchange value, and exchange relation of commodities, in order to come upon the track of the value concealed in them” (I, 55). The value was declared to be “the common factor which appears in the exchange relation of commodities” (I, 45). We were told, in the form and with the emphasis of a stringent syllogistic conclusion, allowing of no exception, that to set down two commodities as equivalents in exchange implied that “a common factor of the same magnitude” existed in both, to which each of the two “must be reducible” (I, 43). Apart, therefore, from temporary and occasional variations which “appear to be a breach of the law of the exchange of commodities” (I, 177), commodities which embody the same amount of labor must on principle, in the long run, exchange for each other. And now in the third volume we are told briefly and dryly that what, according to the teaching of the first volume, must be, is not and never can be; that individual commodities do and must exchange with each other in a proportion different from that of the labor incorporated in them, and this not accidentally and temporarily, but of necessity and permanently.

Here is the intellectual death blow (if there is not a word for this phrase there should be):

I cannot help myself; I see here no explanation and reconciliation of a contradiction, but the bare contradiction itself. Marx’s third volume contradicts the first. The theory of the average rate of profit and of the prices of production cannot be reconciled with the theory of value. This is the impression which must, I believe, be received by every logical thinker.

People still use the word exploitation. Discard them. They are confused. All they have left is a slogan with no meaning. Many people have tried to revive Marx’s economics since Bawerk sent it to the graveyard in 1896. They have all failed. Serious economist have long ago jettisoned the labor theory of value and the exploitation theory.  Even though Bawerk drove a stake through the heart of Marxian economics, Marx’s philosophy remained untouched. Dialectical materialism would go on to dominate twentieth century thought.

China’s Bluff

Bloomberg is reporting that China is considering slowing or halting purchases of US treasuries. This caused a mini massacre in the US bond market. At least every few years we see this headline going back a decade. What are the results? See for yourself:

As some in politics would say ” A big fat nothing burger”. This is why I do not take these warning serious. Until I see action, I will not take these china officials serious. Why does China keep saying this but never act? The US bond market is the safest place to be right now. Safer than China. It is the most attractive bond market when compared to its counterparts in the western world.
One day there will be a massive explosion in the US bond market.
The key is this: One day.
I do not see this occurring in the near future. During turmoil investors flood into the US dollar and US bond market. They believe it is a safe heaven from financial chaos. They are wrong. Until the time comes this thinking changes it will go on like this. I do not see any evidence that this is changing.

 

The Excess Reserves Problem

The Federal Reserve created a lot of digital currency in 2008. Ben Bernanke hit the CTRL-P button a few trillion times to buy worthless OTC derivatives. The banks have taken that money and deposited it back with the Fed. We now have a mountain of excess reserves. About 2.1 trillion (Whats a few billion between friends). Take a look see:
The federal reserve now pays interest on excess reserves (IOER). Banks have not lent out this money. Why not? Well, they get money risk free. They do not feel it’s worth it to loan out this money…yet.
As interest rates begin to rise banks will be tempted to deploy this cash. This will affect the money supply in a huge way. There is not a single person on the planet, least of all the people at the federal reserve, who fully understand how all of this is going to play out when they try to unwind there massive balance sheet.

Dark Clouds on the Horizon

First, Money supply growth has been steady, which is unusual for this time of year.

Second, The yield curve is crashing.
If this does not change the yield curve will go negative sometime in 2018.
Third, the Federal Reserve has made empty threats (so far) to reduce their balance sheet. They have not started in any major way.

There is no reason to panic at this point. However, if these trends continue it could spell doom sometime in the next 18 months. When I believe a recession is coming I will sound the alarms. Right now we are holding our positions.

The US Treasury’s New Plan

The US Treasury issued a new plan this month that would increase the share of shorter-term debt and decrease longer term debt.

This is remarkable. One would think with interest rates at historic lows the plan would be to continue pushing out debt obligations.  This is what the treasury has been doing since 2009.

Besides bad debt management it also risk pushing the yield curve negative.

Shaded areas indicate rescission. Every time the yield goes negative a recession is not far behind. This is logical. Banks borrow short and lend long. When the yield curve goes negative, it is no longer profitable for banks to do this and their loan portfolios stop expanding.
As I have stated in a previous post the greatest bull runs happen just as the yield curve begins to compress. However this policy could push the yield curve negative fast depending on how they execute it.

 

State of the US Economy

Two words: BOOM PHASE.
I am not a cheerleader for the bears or the bulls. Stocks go up and they go down. There are cycles. The perma-bears have been wrong. Very wrong. Since 2011 I have heard them talk about the next recession. Saying there will be another recession is not very insightful. Of course there will be another recession. Most people know this. Very few don’t know this. Janet Yellen is on record saying recession are events of the past. I want to be there when the eggs splat on her face.

Why is a recession not imminent?
First, the yield curve isn’t inverted. It has compressed, but not inverted. Interestingly enough, most of stock market gains comes just as the yield curve compresses (10 year compresses to 6 month interest rate). This is an interesting phenomena that I will dedicate a post to another time.

Second, Corporate profit growth is strong. Earnings per share of S&P500 has had good momentum since 2015.

Third, money supply growth has been elevated. Recessions usually occur when money supply growth has collapsed.

Fourth, all indicators such as business sentiment, fed national financial conditions index, etc. have been constructive to good economic growth and higher stock prices.
Fifth, the US dollar has been tame. I watch the US dollar very closely. It is a key variable to understanding what is happening.

We are in the later stages of the bull market. Most of the gains will be made right now. I have positioned myself and readers of the site to benefit from the coming bull market.

When I believe a recession is looming I will say so. The indicators above will turn negative. At which point we will go to cash and wait.