Records Smashes

It is difficult for me to imagine these moves by the federal reserve do not cause massive price inflation and rising assets prices. Previous records have been smashed and there is more to come.

Nothing like this has happened in US recorded history. Not even the scale. The speed at which it is accelerating. Some of this new money is going back to the fed coffers.

However, a lot of high powered money is entering into the system. For a long time, price inflation has not been a problem. Because of this people tend to extrapolate outwards. If we look at the history of the CPI, we see how rapidly price inflation can change.

The federal reserve is clueless. They publish their papers here. No one reads them. They are papers that are limited to academics. The few papers that discuss inflation always bring up the Philips Curve. Deductive logic and even empirical evidence should have put this theory to rest long ago.

Inflation Warning

The amount of money that is entering the system and the speed at which it is happening is unprecedented. Money and credit are going vertical. I actual had to change the”Y” axis on most of my graphs to make the numbers legible.

It is difficult for me to see how this does not result in massive price inflation.
Remember, the CPI and other economic data are backwards looking. This shutdown is going to show a collapse in the CPI and other economic activity. We are going to see high unemployment and bad housing data for the next few months. But we should not be fooled by these backwards looking indicators. This is not like any other financial crisis where we see a slow down in money and credit followed by a bust. This is the result of a goverment lock-down of the economy.
There is going to be lots of talk about how high inflation can not occur in a weak economy with high unemployment. The trade-off doctrine between inflation and employment was based on the “Phillips curve,” a curve invented decades ago by A.W. Phillips. This idea should have been blown to smithereens in the 70’s where we had both high unemployment and inflation. Even a few months ago we had low inflation and low unemployment. But the Federal Reserve and financial news pundits still talk as if it is real. Even a simple look at past data would show it is incorrect.

Here is Rothbard on the Phillips curve:

Phillips correlated wage rate increases with unemployment, and claimed that the two move inversely: the higher the increases in wage rates, the lower the unemployment. On its face, this is a peculiar doctrine, since it flies in the face of logical, commonsense theory. Theory tells us that the higher the wage rates, the greater the unemployment, and vice versa. If everyone went to their employer tomorrow and insisted on double or triple the wage rate, many of us would be promptly out of a job. Yet this bizarre finding was accepted as gospel by the Keynesian economic Establishment.
By now, it should be clear that this statistical finding violates the facts as well as logical theory. For during the 1950s, inflation was only about one to two percent per year, and unemployment hovered around three or four percent, whereas later unemployment ranged between eight and 11 percent, and inflation between five and 13 percent. In the last two or three decades, in short, both inflation and unemployment have increased sharply and severely. If anything, we have had a reverse Phillips curve. There has been anything but an inflation-unemployment tradeoff.

This bizarre theory is still taught and believed by most economist. It appears that bad ideas never really go away.

Unlicensed Haircuts Are Only the Beginning

By Paul Sherman via the Atlantic:

Fourteen years ago this July, I crowded into a gymnasium in Roanoke along with hundreds of other newly minted J.D.s, waiting to take the exam that would determine whether we would be allowed to practice law in the Commonwealth of Virginia. But in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, it looks certain that this year’s crop of law-school graduates will be skipping this rite of passage, at least temporarily.
Though the bar exam is traditionally administered in July, the National Conference of Bar Examiners has already scheduled alternative dates for the fall. Meanwhile, a growing number of state bars have declared that they will permit new grads to practice law under the supervision of a licensed attorney until the bar exam can be offered again. Other states are considering waiving the exam requirement entirely for people who complete a term of supervised practice.
All of which raises the question: Was the exam necessary in the first place? In an era of specialization, few lawyers will ever use more than a tiny fraction of the material covered on the bar exam. But, for state bar associations, the exams are a useful way to hold down the number of lawyers.
As the nation’s economy and health-care system struggle to adjust to the pandemic, more and more states are reexamining some of their oldest occupational and business regulations—rules that, although couched as protecting consumers, do far more to limit competition. And for those of us who have long questioned the supposed benefits of these policies, their erosion is welcome, even if the pandemic that caused it is not.
Right now, of course, much of the attention is correctly focused on barriers to work in the health-care industry. Yet here, where the state’s interest in promoting public health and safety is undoubtedly highest, we are seeing some of the most sweeping reforms in decades. While some states have ordered their occupational-licensing boards to speed up the licensure of new health-care practitioners, others—such as Indiana—are granting immediate licensing reciprocity to any practitioner licensed in any state. Even Florida, which has long jealously guarded its occupational-licensing regime to prevent semiretired snowbirds from poaching on the locals’ turf, has gotten in on the act, allowing out-of-state health-care providers to practice telemedicine in the state without a license.
Besides these major changes, states have also begun enacting more modest, but no less welcome, changes to regulations that needlessly stand between doctors and the patients who might benefit from their services. Illinois has waived licensure fees for retired medical practitioners who wish to resume practice. Oklahoma and Massachusetts have eliminated restrictions that required doctors to have a preexisting doctor-patient relationship before they could offer telemedicine services. And Florida—no doubt recognizing the stress we’re all under—has waived the requirement of a physical examination before a doctor may issue a certification for the medical use of marijuana.
But occupational licenses aren’t the only long-established health-care regulations being reconsidered. Also being reexamined are state certificate-of-need, or CON, laws. A product of 1970s-era economic regulation, CON laws require health-care providers to prove that new services are “needed” before they may purchase certain large equipment, open new or expanded facilities, or—as is crucial now—offer home health-care services. Often, these laws give an effective veto power to existing medical providers, allowing them to torpedo new competition for their own benefit.
Here again, the needs of our current situation seem to have exceeded the lobbying power of incumbent health-care providers. Governor Kay Ivey of Alabama has issued an emergency order lifting that state’s CON requirements, allowing health-care providers to add new beds and medical services without first convincing the state they are needed. California, Connecticut, Georgia, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, and Virginia have similarly lifted all or part of their state’s CON requirements.
While these changes are all welcome, how they are enacted is as important as their substance. In times of panic, the natural tendency is for government power to expand, and some states have already enacted laws giving state governors near-dictatorial power to waive or suspend legal requirements. But history teaches all too well that such expansions of power are rarely reversed when the crisis that precipitated them abates. So although our current situation requires rapid action, it is both better and safer to make changes through ordinary legislative and rule-making processes.
States that do choose to reexamine occupational licensure won’t lack targets. In the 1950s, only one in 20 American workers needed a license from the government to work in their chosen occupation. Today that number is nearly one in four, and it’s growing. Laws that were once aimed solely at doctors and lawyers now encompass everyone including florists in Louisiana and casket sellers in Oklahoma and interior designers in Florida. As people in lockdown take clippers to their own shaggy hair, they are learning that cuts from unlicensed stylists are not a health hazard—even if the results underscore the wisdom of leaving the job to a market-tested professional.
The consequences of this proliferation are significant. Basic economics predicts that competition reduces prices for consumers, and occupational licensing works directly to stifle competition. The University of Minnesota economist Morris Kleiner, a leading researcher on occupational licensing, estimates that licensing costs consumers nearly $200 billion annually. This might be justifiable if licensing produced substantial improvements in quality, yet most research has failed to find a connection between licensure and service quality or safety. In one study, for example, Kleiner found that the differences in state dental regulations—for instance, whether it was easy or hard for out-of-state dentists to start practicing—had no effect on the dental health of incoming Air Force personnel.
Some of the most profound costs of occupational licensure are felt not by well-paid professionals like doctors and lawyers, but by low- and middle-income workers. When my firm, the Institute for Justice, examined state licensure for 102 low- and middle-income occupations, we found that becoming licensed required, on average, $267 in fees, passage of a state-administered exam, and a year of education or experience. But these requirements can vary wildly from state to state and occupation to occupation. And many occupations are licensed in only a handful of states, being freely practiced throughout the rest of the country with no apparent problems. As a result, workers who have practiced their trade for decades without a license may find themselves ineligible to work in another state where their services are needed.
In 2015, the Obama administration released a study on occupational licensure, concluding that states, when regulating professions through licensing laws, had often failed to consider the costs and benefits. But states no longer have the luxury of ignoring the costs of occupational licensure in health care. When this pandemic ends, states’ reexamination of barriers to work should not, nor should it be limited to a single industry. The licensing reforms being enacted now, though forced upon states by necessity, are not new ideas. They were good ideas before COVID-19, they are good ideas now, and they will be good ideas when this crisis passes.

Money and Credit Go Vertical

The scale of the Federal Reserve operations are unprecedented. I went back since records are first available since I have never seen anything like this before.

Using past data and trying to correlate it to the present is always dangerous. But the last time we have seen anything like this was in the following years: 1983, 2001 and 2009. These years marked the bottom and long bull markets followed. If governments continue this lock down policy, stagflation will rear its ugly head. There is just no way you can stop large portions of productivity which keep prices down and increase money and credit like this without stagflation.
I am still sitting on the sidelines. The psychology of the market is important and I think a retest of the lows will come.

More Downside

Markets will retest the lows.

Massive volume on the way down and light volume on the way up indicate to me that this market has more downside.
The money supply is growing at unprecedented levels.


I have never seen anything like this. On the other side of this are higher asset prices.

Be Patient

The market rallied strongly on the news of the stimulus bill. A counter-trend relief rally was long overdue. After such a rapid decline, the market will usually retest the lows. It is best to wait and see how it will react at the lows.

For the second quarter, the markets will experience a lot of dismal economic data. How the market reacts to this data will give us hints on when to jump back in and buy some stocks. Some stocks have gotten absurdly cheap and have fallen to absurdly low levels. Companies that entered into this crisis with strong balance sheets and cash will be able to make acquisitions at good prices.
I am still long natural gas and oil. I am not opening any new stock positions yet, but wanted to put a few on the radar.

  • Six Flags (SIX)
  • Darden Restaurants (DRI)
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
  • Home Depot (HD)
  • Emerson Electric (EMR)
  • McDonald’s (MCD)
  • International Business Machines ( IBM)

The dividend yield on some of these stocks makes them great for retirees.

The Fed, Money Supply and Credit
The percent change from the previous week in M2 money supply has never been upward sloping for this time of year in the past decade.
This means all of the stimulus and money printing is entering into the economy quickly. I am not dogmatic about the inflation/deflation debate. I like to let the data guide me. If world governments insist on keeping a locked down policy and the money and credit markets continue on this trend we will see stagflation of unprecedented levels. I do not believe this lock down policy will continue past the end of April. There are signs in the US that the federal and state governments are going to ease a bit over the coming weeks.
The federal reserve has pulled out every money printing gimmick it invented over the past decade plus some.
It has established a Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) to enable issuance of asset-backed securities backed by student loans, auto loans and credit card loans.
It is now bailing out municipalities by expanding the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF).
Through its Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF), the fed is buying corporate debt directly and indirectly (think ETF’s).
This has resulted in a balance sheet spike up to about $5.2 trillion dollars.


Whether all this money ends up in the economy bidding up prices or parked back at the federal reserve is yet to be seen.
Bond markets in the US (and across the world) have yawned at all of these events. One day the bond market will discipline these modern day alchemist. But we are a long ways away from such an event.
The best strategy right now is to stay on the sidelines.
For those in the commodity world with a long term view, I have a few thoughts.  Platinum, natural gas and oil are cheap. In fact, the investment of the decade will be Platinum. Buy it and go to sleep for 10 years.

This Will Pass

This downturn is not business cycle related. There is no shift from capital good spending to consumer spending. This is a case where the market was looking for a correction and an exogenous event (COVID-19) gave it a reason to go down. This is a mania. Almost ever media story is a lie. Take this one from the New York Post for example. The headline says “20-year-old coronavirus victim was told ‘no need to worry’ by doctors”. Only half way through the article do you find out he had leukemia. Just one sentence buried in the middle of the article.

The Fed went berserk and has entered into a whole bunch of markets. It cut the fed funds rate to zero, announced $700 billion in QE, re-opened facilities to buy commercial paper-short, re-opened its Primary Dealer Credit Facility and opened up swap lines to other central banks. It basically made unlimited amount of dollars available.

The US goverment is set to bail out the world. A lot of the ’08 money went back to the federal reserve in the form of excess reserves. This time the goverment is going to directly infuse money into the economy.

I also want to put things in perspective.


The NASDAQ and the SP500 are a little higher than one year ago. It was the speed of the correction that caused a massive panic.The DOW and Russel 2K are down big. But the DOW is really not representative of the general stock market and the Russell 2K was always the weakest index of this bull market.

In my post “Took Profits“, I stated a modest correction was coming and I did not want to wait it out. Well the correction was a little more than modest. I honestly thought the market would take a 5-10% dip and go sideways for a while. No one can know when a +30% correction is going to come. They can happen at any time. But there are good stocks out there trading for good prices. I have not opened up any positions yet. I am still in defensive mode. I would like to see the market stabilize and the VIX drop below 20. Obviously my futures trade with oil and natural gas are hurting. But you have to think about the other side of this mania. There is plenty of money in the system to bid up prices as soon as this panic goes away. In the coming weeks we shall see how all this money printing and bailouts enter the economy. If I am correct we will see large money supply increases. I expect a sharp contraction in economic data in Q2 and a recover in Q3. Over the next few weeks I will be opening up some stock recommendations.

The Madness of Crowds

We are living through a mania. It is worse than the bitcoin mania. People that I follow and respect have succumbed to the Covid-19 madness.
Any data from China should be looked at with suspicion. South Korea is much more reliable source of nation-level data than China or Italy. We see that cases in South Korea have leveled off, which 99% are designated as “mild”.
The New England Journal of Medicine on February 28th had the most sober comment:

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggest that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968)…”

The fools in the media which extrapolate outlandish total mortalities will prove to be inaccurate. When the source of some of these outlandish claims made by media talking heads is traced back to the origin, what you find is a complete misrepresentation of the data.

Supply chain disruptions is already on the road to recover as China and other Asian manufacturing exporters go back to work.
Demand disruptions are just getting started. Corporate lawyers and insurers know the wrong move could lead to a lawsuit and cost the company millions. So to play it safe and cancel all events.

And Now Oil
Last Friday a split emerged between Saudi and Russia. Saudi slashed oil prices and demanded an increase in production. This lead to a 25% drop Sunday night in the price of oil. This was painful to watch since I am long oil. There are a few things to note about this.
First, both Russia and Saudi want higher oil prices. They just disagree on the best path forward. Second, if this truly is a feud between the two, Saudi will win. It cost them $15 a barrel to extract oil from the ground. Russia will wind up folding at some point. Saudi wants to negotiate. They need higher oil prices for the welfare state.

Central Bankers
After offering an expanded $1.5 trillion in repos, the New York Fed desk has announced Friday it is accelerating a planned $33 billion in treasury bond purchases. Since January, 15 central banks have cut rates. Monetary stimulus is coming from all directions. Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren is generally known as a hawk. He commented recently that in a crisis the Fed should be permitted to buy stocks. If you have not figured it out yet, let me be the first to tell you. Central bankers are going to print money. That is their answer to everything. Pandemic? Print. Earthquake? Print. Racism? Print. Global warming? Print. They will print until the bond market disciplines them.

What Should Be Done
I am long natural gas and oil still. Both are down big. The correction I “felt” coming has arrived. Covid-19 was the market looking for a reason to correct. But there was a lot of euphoria in stocks going into the new year. Far to many people became confident stocks could not go down. Far to many people were calling me asking me about stocks and what to buy. This is about the time a correction comes. This is why I stress the importance of taking profits. If you do not sell at a profit, you sell at a lose.
A lot of psychological and technical damage has been done. I have not deployed any cash reserves just yet. You need to see the market stabilize for a few days. The crucial point is this: There is nothing to indicate that an 08′ type financial crises is coming. Yes the airlines, cruise liners, restaurant industries will suffer. They will experience layoff’s.  Unemployment will rise for these industries. But money supply growth and credit conditions remain intact. 30% corrections are hard. Especially when they occur in a few trading days. This is why you must always have cash reserves. Whether this turns into a deceleration or just another economic scare remains to be seen. I believe it is the latter.