China’s Bluff

Bloomberg is reporting that China is considering slowing or halting purchases of US treasuries. This caused a mini massacre in the US bond market. At least every few years we see this headline going back a decade. What are the results? See for yourself:

As some in politics would say ” A big fat nothing burger”. This is why I do not take these warning serious. Until I see action, I will not take these china officials serious. Why does China keep saying this but never act? The US bond market is the safest place to be right now. Safer than China. It is the most attractive bond market when compared to its counterparts in the western world.
One day there will be a massive explosion in the US bond market.
The key is this: One day.
I do not see this occurring in the near future. During turmoil investors flood into the US dollar and US bond market. They believe it is a safe heaven from financial chaos. They are wrong. Until the time comes this thinking changes it will go on like this. I do not see any evidence that this is changing.

 

Credit Card Debt Climbs

An article posted today at USA today says there is a new warning sign. Credit Card debt is hitting record highs. The time to worry is when credit beings to slow down. The time to worry when credit growth beings to become stagnant.

A time will come when their will be a warning sign. It will be the exact opposite of what USA today thinks.

When to Start Thinking About Retirement

The answer is RIGHT NOW. Pick a retirement age. Lets say 65. Lets say you plan on living until 95. If you start saving at the age of 30 to reach a million by 65 you must save $33,333 per year. This is assuming your investments will keep up with inflation each year. How much money are you saving per year? Devise a plan now. Do not put it off. The future will be here before you know it.

Voting with Your Feet

The US migration map for 2017 is out. Here are the trends since 2011 to present day:

People are leaving high taxed states in droves. Some, I bet, are taking their philosophy with them. They can’t seem to understand their voting habits and thinking created a nightmare in the state they are leaving behind.
Others have had enough. It takes a lot to pick up and move from one state to the next. You leave behind family and friends. You have to pull your children out of school. It would be more interesting to see the demographics of the people moving.
Questions to ask yourself:
Do you own real estate in the outbound states?
Should you buy real estate in the inbound states?

The Excess Reserves Problem

The Federal Reserve created a lot of digital currency in 2008. Ben Bernanke hit the CTRL-P button a few trillion times to buy worthless OTC derivatives. The banks have taken that money and deposited it back with the Fed. We now have a mountain of excess reserves. About 2.1 trillion (Whats a few billion between friends). Take a look see:
The federal reserve now pays interest on excess reserves (IOER). Banks have not lent out this money. Why not? Well, they get money risk free. They do not feel it’s worth it to loan out this money…yet.
As interest rates begin to rise banks will be tempted to deploy this cash. This will affect the money supply in a huge way. There is not a single person on the planet, least of all the people at the federal reserve, who fully understand how all of this is going to play out when they try to unwind there massive balance sheet.

Donald Trump Wants to Block Out the Sun

Rumors have it that President Donald Trump is asking “Where are my tariffs?” Tariffs are taxes. We are told by the RNC that all taxes are bad. Tariffs are somehow different… only in name. Frederick Bastiat wrote the candlemaker petition. It was published in 1845. Since that time no one has said,
“Frederick Bastiat you are wrong because of this”.
It was a satirical piece.  The candlemakers and tallow producers write a letter to lobby the Chamber of Deputies of the French July Monarchy. The candlemakers and tallow producers have an unfair foreign competitor. The government must help the candlemakers and tallow producers. The government must save jobs. The foreign competitor is….. the sun!!!! The government must create laws for everyone to block out their windows with curtains and use candles.
That will make you think. It will make you reflect. Something isn’t correct with this “Tariffs are good” idea. Of course a tariff on steel will help the steel makers in the USA.
The questions is: At the expense of whom?
Answer: Everyone else.

H&S

Small Head and Shoulder Continuation Pattern in the USD. One of my favorite trades to make.


1- It is a continuation pattern. I like to go with the trend.
2- This H&S looks very neat. It had a clear break below the trend line. Both shoulders are the same size and height.
3- It has been developing over a nice time frame. I don’t like trades that play out less than 12 weeks.

The Exact Opposite of a Top

Below is a long term snap shot of HUI gold mining index.

This sector is pretty much hated by everyone. Since 2011 it has been battered and bruised. Even the hardcore gold bugs have thrown in the towel and abandoned  this poor sector. This catches my interest. I like to be where everyone is not. With an all in sustaining cost to produce an ounce of gold at about 850$ per ounce and a gold price at 1300$ per ounce this makes for some pretty hefty profit margins. Mining shares seem to come roaring out of the gate in the beginning of each year. Which is why we opened a few positions in the red headed step child of the financial sector.
Looking closely, we see the HUI is where it was at in 2008. That’s when everyone thought the world was coming to an end. Don’t worry about them crashing. They have already done that.