Possible Trades and Open Postions

I am still long corn. I would have bailed Friday but was away from my computer. Generally, once it makes a weekend close below the neckline, I go flat.

I got stopped out of the 2-year for a loss. The bond market might be making an intermittent bottom here.

Stocks look like they want to drop much further. I have been totally out of sync with US stocks since May 2021 though. Nevertheless, I plan to take a short position on a break down.

Gold looks set to advance here. A break above 2100 and I will be look to go long.

Bailed on Aussie Dollar

I bailed on this market. It flirted with my stops early morning. I have no interest in a market that breaks down and hangs around the breakdown point.

Possible Trades

The SP500 broke down from a head and shoulder top. I have an interest in being short this market.

I also have an interest in being long AFL and COST if they break out to the upside.

Any position in stocks will be very small. There just does not seem to be any follow through with US stocks on breakouts. They tend to linger around breakout points and/or do hard retests.

Silver looks set to breakdown from its triangle. I am considering a short position if it does.

The Aussie dollar is forming a small rectangle. I have a desire to be short if it breaks down.

Below is a chart for educational proposes. Orange juice just completed its multiyear rectangle. I rarely trade OJ or multiyear patterns. Just found it interesting.

Stay Being Smart

Commodity bull markets (especially in the grains) are short lived. The moment people start talking about a commodity bull market, it is over. They are not like stocks or bonds. Stocks and bonds go into multidecade bull and bear markets. My original post on being smart discussed the wheat market.

There are perma bulls in the commodity markets. They talk about food shortages. As I discussed here, this is not going to happen. When wheat was trading above 1200, they were saying it had a long way to go. It did indeed… on the downside. At every top, there are a thousand reasons experts give that it will keep going higher. Here is my rule: When the price goes vertical, it is time to sell. When the experts say, “This time is different”. It’s not. It’s just another top.