Category: Trades

On the Radar

I will consider going long Natural Gas Sunday night (April 22 contract).

It could be argued that silver made a failed H&S bottom. It flashed a sell single Friday at close. However, I am a long term silver bull and will probably not take this sell signal.

Corn made a H&S bottom on the continuation chart. I am already long the September 22 contract. Corns strong closing into Friday is very constructive considering the asset sell off that occurred.

The Nikkei 225 is forming a rectangle. I will consider a long position on a breakout.

Copper is also forming a rectangle. I will consider a long position on the break out.

A market I wish I was long is live cattle. I considered going long Friday but the asset sell off suggested it was best to wait. I do not know if I will get a chance to go long. I will consider a long position with a pull back to the 140 level.

I am still very bearish on Soybean Oil. It appears to be making a massive top. I will consider a short position with a break below the 55 level.

US Stocks
Scrolling through my watch list, I did not see one US stock that looked like an attractive buy. The market seems to be over reacting to a wave of possible lock downs to come. Personally, I do not think another lock down will come in the US. If another panic selling occurs like March 2019, I will view it as a good buying opportunity. There is nothing that indicates a 2008 credit crunch is on the horizon.

Days Like This

I tightened stops and reduce positions. I only have open two positions. I am long DBA and September corn. Both markets I reduced my long positions. I would rather wait for the smoke to clear.

Position Update

The Mexican Peso reached its target this morning. I made a nice profit and now flat.

The 5-Year rallied and stopped me out for a loss.

Soybeans did what I expected it to do. I was stopped out for a small loss.

I had my stops for AFL and OZK at a break even point. I am flat both markets. I will still be looking to go long AFL in the future.

I got stopped out of LEN for a loss.

Soybeans Update

I have reduced my long positions in Soybeans and moved my stops up to 1256. It is the weakest grain and seems to be hanging around after the breakout. This price action is indicative of losing trade to come. My opinion is that Soybeans bottomed at the 1185 mark and it will not retest that level for some time. However, I trade my plan, not my opinion.

Symmetrical Triangle Observations

My years of experience trading suggest that the more touches you have for a symmetrical triangle, the more likely it is a reversal pattern rather than a continuation pattern.
Take for instance the price action of the Peso back in March of 2019. Six touches usually indicates a reversal.

Soybean Oil is making a similar symmetrical triangle.

I may take a shot on the short side of Soybean Oil if it breaks down from the triangle. Symmetrical triangle are my least favorite pattern to trade. Especially if it is a reversal pattern.

Wheat Going Vertical

Even though I officially closed out my wheat position in the performance tab, I am still holding half of my long position. I am aggressively managing my stops. This year, I racked up a whole bunch of losses trading wheat. This one trade made up for all of those loses and gave me some nice profits. Every year, I find this truth- 20% of my trades account for 80% of my profits.