Category: Trades

I am long with a stop at 57.15 and a target of 65.

SP500 is about to complete a H&S continuation pattern. I am long with a stop at 4670 and a target of 5000.

Both have completed H&S top’s. I may short if a rally comes. I had orders to sell KC wheat at 805 this morning but the orders never got filled. I consider KC wheat a missed trade.

I opened a short position in the Canadian Dollar with a stop at 0.78145 and a target of 0.75. It made a very sloppy H&S top. It is a multi-year pattern and the right shoulder is prolonged and higher than the left shoulder.

I should have waited until after the FOMC meeting to enter new positions but I have a strong desire to be short this market. The US dollar looks like it wants to rally and the Canadian Dollar looks vulnerable. I am only risking 50 basis points on this trade.

I am long with a stop at 288.3 and a target of 320.

AFL is about to break out from its rectangle. It is perfect in its duration. Notice the strength as it approaches its resistance. I would like to think this will be one for the books. Generally, I would put on full risk for this pattern. However, US stocks have not been kind to me since May.

Soybean Oil is breaking down. It touched my stops and did a 180 degree turn. This is the frustration with these large symmetrical triangles. I am still bearish and will be looking to short on a rally.

The continuation chart flashed a sell signal Friday. I have been very frustrated by Soybean Oil this year. It is probably best I just leave it be.

The Eurodollars (Dec 24 contract) is still working on its massive top. The entire bond market looks set for another down leg. I have a bias to be short bonds.

Finally, a picture of what a Head and Shoulder top looks like. Something tells me the Oat bull market is over. I will be looking to short with a close below the 685 level. I rarely trade markets that have daily volume below 5,000. I am going to make an exemption in this case. I am open to the view that this will be a failed H&S pattern and go on to make new highs. I do not think this will be the case though for two reasons.
1- open interest is declining with price. This indicates that the longs are becoming discouraged and willing to sell to the shorts at lower and lower prices.
2- the calendar spreads in this market have been showing the front months to be week relative to the back months. This is not a good sign.

STOCKS
Symbol	Position	Date Position Opened	Price Position Opened		Week Closing Price	Percent Change
ARE	Long	12/8/21	212.18		211.94	-0.1%
CME	Long	12/8/21	232.5		228.4	-1.8%
	Total Open Profit/Loss Stocks					-1.9%
FUTURES
Symbol	Position	Date Position Opened	Price Position Opened		Week Closing Price	Percent Change
NG	Short	11/30/21	4.51		3.885	13.86%
ZCU22	Long	10/27/21	547.5		564.25	3.06%
	Total Open Profit/Loss Futures					16.9%

It looks as if KC wheat has put in a H&S top. I have no intention of shorting. Just an observation.

I am long with a stop at 217.5 with a target of 300.

I am long with a stop at 208.48 and a target of 235.