Category: Trades

30-Year Possible Top

The 30-year bonds are putting in a possible head and shoulder top.

Multi-year patterns like this are a tactical nightmare to trade. The right shoulder is also longer than the left shoulder. Not something I like to see in a head and shoulder top. I will consider a small short position if it rallies back to the 156 level.

Euphoria

There is far too much excitement around certain markets. This was the reason I closed out my long grain and short US stock positions. When everyone thinks they are a genius, look for the reversal. Looking at the charts of excitement, they all displayed a bearish head shot doji.

The market has been good to me this week and my trading account is up 10%. I made an exit stage right and will wait until all this Ukraine business settles down.

Position Update

I took profits on KC wheat and closed out my SP500 short position. I currently have only one position: Short Eurodollars (December 24 contract). I have a gut feeling the grains have completed their bull run and stocks have washed out for a bottom. The Ukraine situation feels like a “buy the rumor, sell the news” type of event. I will probably be opening a short position in the Canadian Dollar tonight.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar is about to complete a small rectangle. If it closes below the 0.78 level, I will open a small short position. I will be looking to add to the short position with a close below the 0.77 level.

Wheat Goes Vertical

I am still long KC wheat (December 22 contract). I plan to use what I call the “last day rule”. I keep moving my stops to the low of the last day. I took profits at the 935 level but I want to ride this move as long as possible.

Short SP500

The SP500 completed a large H&S top with an abbreviated right shoulder. I am short with a stop at 4300 and a target of 3700. All major markets look vulnerable to me at the moment.