Category: Trades

More damage. Hold your short positions. This one has more downside.

If you have not moved your stops what are you waiting for?

If you ever been to a rodeo you know a bull hates riders. Same with investing. Far to many people have gotten bullish on oil. The”dumb” money has built up the largest net long position on record.

At the very least it’s time for oil to take a rest. The oil target was $68. It is time to take more profits. Move your stops up further at the very least.

If you shorted bitcoin as indicated here, than you are sitting on some nice profits. Now is the time to lock in those profits. Looking at the chart we see a bear flag formation. This market does not look pretty.

Natural gas update.
As predicated, natural gas did not go to zero.

It is approaching major resistance though. This is the time you take some profits. Valentines day is coming up. Get your spouse something nice with this hard earned money.

Update on the USD trade. Take some profits. Move the rest of your stops up to lock in a profit. If you have only one open position the trade has completed.
Looking at the long term chart the dollar just made a weekly closing not seen in almost 3 years.

Not much technical support until 85. The USD is looking weak at the moment.

In regards to the following crude oil trade, it is time to lock in a little profit. At least move your stop to a break even point. Don’t let open profits turn to a loss.

For those feeling brave and courageous this looks like the perfect time to short bitcoin. Yes, I dared to say it. Parabolic blow off tops are best shorted right after there holiday pop.

Small Head and Shoulder Continuation Pattern in the USD. One of my favorite trades to make.

1- It is a continuation pattern. I like to go with the trend.
2- This H&S looks very neat. It had a clear break below the trend line. Both shoulders are the same size and height.
3- It has been developing over a nice time frame. I don’t like trades that play out less than 12 weeks.

On the complete opposite spectrum of bitcoin we have natural gas.

This market has been beaten down. Over the years I have been wanting to get into this market on the long side. However the cost of rolling contracts over from month to month was high. Additionally buying a contract into the future was very expensive compared to spot prices. This has changed. Looking out into the future six months the price over spot is not that bad.

For those left with patience, you can buy a contract in the future. Don’t put any stops in place. Just ride it out. As commodities get closer to zero the risk going on the long side also goes to zero. Unless of course you think natural gas is going to zero.

One of my favorite trades is crude oil breaking out of a box formation. Looks like its targeting 68$.