Category: Trades

Bitcoin’s down leg continues. Will the low hold?

I am in the “No” camp.

Feeder cattle appears to be making a multi-headed top.

I am not a mechanical trader. Even though this trade fits my plan, if I don’t “feel” it, I won’t trade it.
First, I don’t like trading this market. It has been known to gap up and down. Sometimes these gaps are significant. In the chart above, you see can see a few gaps.
Second, this market is known to limit up/down. I don’t like to be in markets that will trap me. Looking at the traders positions, the small traders (i.e. dumb money), have a net short. The large traders and commercial hedgers have a net long. This is very unusual. This adds to the possibility that it could limit up and move against my short position.
I have trouble sleeping at night. I don’t need to have one more thing on my mind.

Cocoa trade has been closed out.

Bitcoin has a failed head and shoulder bottom and a double top. This market is going to test the $6000 low made in February.

It has also decoupled from the general stock markets. The price action since February has looked suspicious to me. I suspect some big players are painting the tape.

The Swiss Frank trade did not play out as expected. I suspected it would not. See here.
We got stop out at 1.05.

Cocoa is completing its bottom pattern. Clean break and it trends right to its target.

Natural Gas Update.
Lower than expected supplies is moving it along in an upward trajectory. Time is key in this market. Oversold indicators are moving to neutral.

We are currently long the Swiss Franc (CHF). See here. Below is an up to date chart of the CHF from the breakout point.
This trade will most likely not play out as expected. In my experience, when a breakout occurs it goes right to its target. It never looks back. Below is a H&S top trade in cocoa from late 2016.

Notice how clean the break was in Cocoa just like the CHF. However, cocoa didn’t linger around the breakout point. It started its trend to its destination. The fact that CHF is not trending to its target is the first hint this trade will be a dud.
So what should be done about this?
Nothing. I traded per my plan. After I execute my plan all I can do is sit and wait.

Natural Gas Update.
I think we will get a 50 cent move up. That’s $5,000 profit per contract. Unpredictable weather will help.

The only issue is the cost to roll forward from month to month.


I own some April-18 and some April-19. For April-18, it needs to get to the price target in one month. The market already priced in warmer than usually weather for the rest of the winter. Any cold weather will cause the price to sky rocket.

Gold looks like it wants to make a multi headed bottom. I wont go long until I see a clear break above 1380.

This will be the fifth time in the past 4 years gold has attempted to break this resistance. Looking at the chart we see the series of higher highs leading to 1380 since the beginning of 2016. I think this time it will break through. However, we will wait for confirmation.