Category: Trades

The Swiss Frank trade did not play out as expected. I suspected it would not. See here.
We got stop out at 1.05.

Cocoa is completing its bottom pattern. Clean break and it trends right to its target.

Natural Gas Update.
Lower than expected supplies is moving it along in an upward trajectory. Time is key in this market. Oversold indicators are moving to neutral.

We are currently long the Swiss Franc (CHF). See here. Below is an up to date chart of the CHF from the breakout point.
This trade will most likely not play out as expected. In my experience, when a breakout occurs it goes right to its target. It never looks back. Below is a H&S top trade in cocoa from late 2016.

Notice how clean the break was in Cocoa just like the CHF. However, cocoa didn’t linger around the breakout point. It started its trend to its destination. The fact that CHF is not trending to its target is the first hint this trade will be a dud.
So what should be done about this?
Nothing. I traded per my plan. After I execute my plan all I can do is sit and wait.

Natural Gas Update.
I think we will get a 50 cent move up. That’s $5,000 profit per contract. Unpredictable weather will help.

The only issue is the cost to roll forward from month to month.


I own some April-18 and some April-19. For April-18, it needs to get to the price target in one month. The market already priced in warmer than usually weather for the rest of the winter. Any cold weather will cause the price to sky rocket.

Gold looks like it wants to make a multi headed bottom. I wont go long until I see a clear break above 1380.

This will be the fifth time in the past 4 years gold has attempted to break this resistance. Looking at the chart we see the series of higher highs leading to 1380 since the beginning of 2016. I think this time it will break through. However, we will wait for confirmation.

The Japanese Yen broke out. Put stop at 0.92

Looks like it is targeting 1.0000.
The reason I like this trade is the third try it broke out. In my experience, these chart formations tend to move right to there target.

Natural Gas has entered into the bottom of the buy zone. Go long.

Why I like this trade.
1- Two touches at the bottom and the third touch at top it busted through forcefully.
2- It is going with the trend.
3- It closed out at a high it hasn’t seen in over 2 years.
4- Markets are correcting. People consider the Swiss Franc as a safe haven in times of panics.
Place your stop at 1.05. It looks like the target is 1.15.

Leans Hogs looks like it wants to make a massive head and shoulders bottom. We wont go long unless it breaks the trend line.