Category: Trades

The Pound reached its target of 1.32. The double top has completed its pattern.

First took the NASDAQ long position here. Details along the way are here and here. Now is the time to move the stops up and lock in a profit.

Move stop up to 7100. I will exit trade at 7500, although it measures to 8000 I will be sitting on 10K profit per contract and I wont be able to resist to exit.

Here is where I see potential trade setups.
The German stock index DAX might be making a H&S top or, even better, a failed H&S top.

The Aussie Dollar is in a rectangle formation. I will take a trade if it breaks out in either direction.

The New Zealand Dollar, which we made a nice profit shorting not to long ago, is in a rectangle formation on the weekly chart. I will take a trade if it breaks out in either direction.

Lean Hogs is still making a massive H&S bottom. My only issue with lean hogs is it loves to gap up and down. This could cause sleepless nights for you.

Finally, I present to you the most boring market in the world. The grain market.

It has been a long time since any of the grain markets have made any chart formations.

Update to the British Pound short position. As discussed here and here, the British pound is still moving toward its 1.3200 target. I have moved the stop to lock in a small profit. On May 29th the Pound made an inter-day low at 1.3215.

That is 0.0015 away from my limit order. It than made a 180 back to 1.3418. There is nothing more frustrating than getting a few ticks from your target only to have it turn away.

Update to the NASDAQ trade. The NASDAQ took out the left shoulder.  It will now challenge its all time high.

The S&P500 and DIJA are still consolidating.

Below is a mid year review of the trading performance for 2018. This is based on a per contract trade.

Symbol	Position	Price Position Opened	Price Position Closed	Percent Change	Profit/Loss per contract
BTC	Short	15144	10000	51.4%	$25,720.00
CHF	Long	1.0779	1.05	-2.7%	-$3,487.50
CL	Long	58.97	63.68	7.4%	$4,710.00
CL	Long	66.7	71.53	6.8%	$4,830.00
Cocoa	Long	2302	2536	9.2%	$2,340.00
Feeder Cattle	Short	138.25	142	-2.6%	-$1,875.00
JPY	Long	0.9438	0.922	-2.4%	-$2,725.00
NG	Long	2.622	3.208	18.3%	$5,860.00
NG	Long	2.574	2.82	8.7%	$2,460.00
NZD	Short	0.7115	0.6997	1.7%	$1,180.00
USD	Short	91.76	90.59	1.3%	$1,170.00
Total Realized  Profit/Loss Futures				97.1%	$40,182.50

 

I watch the USD very closely. However, I missed a great trade that developed in the middle of April. It was not until the end of April until I realized the missed trade. By than, it was to late. Since than, when I put on my “trading hat”, all I can think about is this trade.

In the beginning of 2018, I took a USD short trade which turned out to be very profitable.
The USD than made a H&S failure pattern. H&S failure patterns are when the market looks as though it will make a H&S, than does a 180. My most profitable trades are H&S failures.
This missed trade has been haunting me. Dealing with your emotions is very important when trading. Especially in the highly leveraged futures market.

Update to The Pounds Double Top.
The pound has been trending toward its 1.32 target. I am moving my stop up to the break even point.

Gold broke down from support last week from a rectangle formation. See my original post here. It appears to be retesting resistance.

I did not take this trade. Nor do I plan to take it. Even though it fits in perfect with my plan I was hesitant to short gold. I do not trade mechanically. I would rather miss a trade if it does not “feel” right to me. This trade smelled like a bear trap for several reasons.
First , inter-market analysis showed the USD was approaching resistance and was set to at least take a pause from its bull run.

Second, the mining shares did not confirm a break down in gold.

The miners were not phased. Over the years, the miners have been very sensitive to large drops in gold.
Time will tell if this is just a retest of gold 1305 resistance before it test the 1240 target. If you were going to short it, the time would be now with a tight stop at 1310. However, I think this will be a proven bear trap.
The key take away is this: Inter-market analysis can save you a lost trade.

The NASDAQ predictably  stalled at left shoulder. See here.

Looking closely at the trade action, I think it will bust through and challenge the all time high. We shall see if it puts in a weekly closing above the left shoulder.