Category: Trades

On my radar this morning is crude oil.

Ascending triangles are one of my favorite trades. Moving averages are in alignment. MACD has a bullish crossover. I am looking for a clear daily closing above the inter-day high made in march.
On the longer term chart, we see it is about to make a 4.5 year high. For some reason, the algorithms love it when a market makes a fresh high not seen in many years.

Although I trade futures purely from a technical viewpoint, I can not help notice the fundamentals that will drive oil prices higher.
Unease in the middle east (what else is new?) .
Saudi Arabia stated that they are aiming for $80 a barrel for the Armaco IPO.
We will wait for confirmation before going long.

I have a wait and see attitude toward this gold rally. My personnel opinion is it will bust through 1360-1380 this time. However, I don’t trade on opinion. I will wait and see if it breaks resistance or turns away.

Update to Will the Low Hold?
Bitcoin is approaching the low made in February.

Looking at the chart, this seems to be the panic level. Lots of speculators will flood the market with sell orders if this support gives away.

Update on the gold market.
Gold looks set to break out from its multi-headed bottom.

It must break 1380 forcefully in order for me to take this trade. Once it breaks out, there is not much resistance until $1580.
Another reason why I think it is going to break out is because on the daily chart it broke out of a bull flag.
In my experience, these smaller daily patterns are used to launch the bigger weekly patterns.

Our position in the Yen finally began to move.

The Nikkei broke down.

Feeder cattle broke down today.

Place stop at 142.
I can’t resist making this trade. It broke down on the daily and weekly chart.
I’ll sleep when I’m dead.

Bitcoin’s down leg continues. Will the low hold?

I am in the “No” camp.

Feeder cattle appears to be making a multi-headed top.

I am not a mechanical trader. Even though this trade fits my plan, if I don’t “feel” it, I won’t trade it.
First, I don’t like trading this market. It has been known to gap up and down. Sometimes these gaps are significant. In the chart above, you see can see a few gaps.
Second, this market is known to limit up/down. I don’t like to be in markets that will trap me. Looking at the traders positions, the small traders (i.e. dumb money), have a net short. The large traders and commercial hedgers have a net long. This is very unusual. This adds to the possibility that it could limit up and move against my short position.
I have trouble sleeping at night. I don’t need to have one more thing on my mind.

Cocoa trade has been closed out.

Bitcoin has a failed head and shoulder bottom and a double top. This market is going to test the $6000 low made in February.

It has also decoupled from the general stock markets. The price action since February has looked suspicious to me. I suspect some big players are painting the tape.