Category: Trades

Update to The Pounds Double Top.
The pound has been trending toward its 1.32 target. I am moving my stop up to the break even point.

Gold broke down from support last week from a rectangle formation. See my original post here. It appears to be retesting resistance.

I did not take this trade. Nor do I plan to take it. Even though it fits in perfect with my plan I was hesitant to short gold. I do not trade mechanically. I would rather miss a trade if it does not “feel” right to me. This trade smelled like a bear trap for several reasons.
First , inter-market analysis showed the USD was approaching resistance and was set to at least take a pause from its bull run.

Second, the mining shares did not confirm a break down in gold.

The miners were not phased. Over the years, the miners have been very sensitive to large drops in gold.
Time will tell if this is just a retest of gold 1305 resistance before it test the 1240 target. If you were going to short it, the time would be now with a tight stop at 1310. However, I think this will be a proven bear trap.
The key take away is this: Inter-market analysis can save you a lost trade.

The NASDAQ predictably  stalled at left shoulder. See here.

Looking closely at the trade action, I think it will bust through and challenge the all time high. We shall see if it puts in a weekly closing above the left shoulder.

On the weekly chart it looks to be testing the lower bound of its channel.

The daily chart shows it broke out of its trading range and it wants to test $1240.

With the dollar soaring, it looks like it will test the $1240. I am undecided at the moment if I want to trade this market on the short side.

Closed out the long crude oil position at $71.53. See here. My target was $72.00. With an entry trade of 66.7 and an exit at 71.53 that leaves me with $4,830 profit per contract. I can live with that.

The NASDAQ took out the right shoulder.

Went long at 6958.75. Stop was placed at 6808. NASDAQ is targeting 8000.
For the record, the Russell 2000 broke out of its symmetrical triangle.

Nasdaq appears to have broken the H&S top formation. A close above the right shoulder at 6870 would be bullish, and indicate it will challenge its all time high.

The Russel 2000 appears to be making a large symmetrical triangle. These are continuation patterns. I will probably not take this trade since I am not a fan of symmetrical triangles.

A  couple of weeks ago I commented on the pounds potential cup and handle. It never completed the pattern. It hit resistance and made a 180. Now it looks set to complete a double top.

Went short at 1.3638. Stop is placed at 1.38. Target is 1.32

The New Zealand Dollar has completed its pattern. Following the break down as discussed here, it has reached its target.

My only regret with this trade was I missed the initial break down. Other things in life made me miss a few ticks in profit.