Category: Trades

The Germany Stock market just made a head and shoulder top.

Placed stop at 12100. Target is 10800. The right shoulder dragged out a little bit but the drop today on good volume indicates this will have some follow through.

The market action today was strange. Massive drop in stock markets around the world but the US dollar or US bond market did not move. Asia was relatively stable. This could indicate investors are worried about rising interest rates in the US. This is the type of action I expect when the bond bull market is ending. I am watching for follow through on these moves to confirm.

The long bond completed its pattern. Failed H&S are among the best trades.

The New Zealand Dollar has come close enough for me. I have closed the position. It felt like an eternity being in this market.

SP500 and Nikkei have reached targets and exceeded. I will exit Sunday night.

Moved stop up to 2900 to lock in profits on the SP500.

Near 3000 I will exit. Locked in massive profits and do not want to give it all back.

I should probably just exit the New Zealand Dollar trade and be thankful I have some profits. It seems to be taking forever to get to its target. I am moving stop down to .6759 to the break even point.

Finally, portrait of a perfect trade. This is one for the text books.

The 30 year looks set to tumble further. Head and shoulder failures are one of the best trades to make. I am not thrilled about how it broke down and the H&S looks kind of sloppy but I am willing to take a chance on this short.

Target is 138.00. Stop is at 142.22.

The Nikkei 225 just broke out from a perfect head and shoulders bottom. It does not have any resistance until about 24000.

I went long at 23110. Stop is placed at 22450 and target is 24000.

The Nikkei is making a perfect head and shoulder pattern. A clean break above 23K I will be going long.

The DAX is also making a head and shoulder pattern. Not as clean as the Nikkei but still a good trade.

Crude oil is making a potentially head and shoulder.

The 30 year bond is also making a head and shoulder pattern.

Orange Juice looks set to complete its double top.

The long USD trade got stopped out at 95.00 for a loss.

I am still short the Austrian dollar. My gut tells me this will be a failed trade but I am staying in it.

The long gold trade is down big. I am convinced that a rally into the end of the year is coming. I am sticking by this trade.

The SP500 trade is moving to toward the 2900 target. I am moving my stop up to break even. I will see how the market reacts to 2900. I will let this profit run though and not be so eager to exit. When markets break all time highs they tend to run for a little before they stall.

USD broke out of ascending triangle.

Target is 98. Stop is at 95.

Few thoughts on open trades.
The SP500 is ready to test its all time high. It is doing its usually melt up climbing the wall of worry. It broke out from the resistance than came back to retest.

The New Zealand Dollar finally broke down hard. It looked as if it would be a failed trade since it lingered around the support. With the gap down this morning I think this trade will play out nice.

Gold typically bottoms around this time of year. I believe it will begin a rally sometime in the next few weeks. The 1200-1210 range is good support.