Category: Trades

The 30 year looks set to tumble further. Head and shoulder failures are one of the best trades to make. I am not thrilled about how it broke down and the H&S looks kind of sloppy but I am willing to take a chance on this short.

Target is 138.00. Stop is at 142.22.

The Nikkei 225 just broke out from a perfect head and shoulders bottom. It does not have any resistance until about 24000.

I went long at 23110. Stop is placed at 22450 and target is 24000.

The Nikkei is making a perfect head and shoulder pattern. A clean break above 23K I will be going long.

The DAX is also making a head and shoulder pattern. Not as clean as the Nikkei but still a good trade.

Crude oil is making a potentially head and shoulder.

The 30 year bond is also making a head and shoulder pattern.

Orange Juice looks set to complete its double top.

The long USD trade got stopped out at 95.00 for a loss.

I am still short the Austrian dollar. My gut tells me this will be a failed trade but I am staying in it.

The long gold trade is down big. I am convinced that a rally into the end of the year is coming. I am sticking by this trade.

The SP500 trade is moving to toward the 2900 target. I am moving my stop up to break even. I will see how the market reacts to 2900. I will let this profit run though and not be so eager to exit. When markets break all time highs they tend to run for a little before they stall.

USD broke out of ascending triangle.

Target is 98. Stop is at 95.

Few thoughts on open trades.
The SP500 is ready to test its all time high. It is doing its usually melt up climbing the wall of worry. It broke out from the resistance than came back to retest.

The New Zealand Dollar finally broke down hard. It looked as if it would be a failed trade since it lingered around the support. With the gap down this morning I think this trade will play out nice.

Gold typically bottoms around this time of year. I believe it will begin a rally sometime in the next few weeks. The 1200-1210 range is good support.

Here are some of the trades I see setting up.
First, the Japan stock market. It appears to be making a H&S pattern. A break above 23000 will be bullish and I will go long.

The German stock market appears to be making a H&S top or a failed H&S top.

The 30 year bond market appears to be making a massive H&S bottom.

The USD appears to want to continue its run higher. A strong break above 95 I will go long.

As the USD so goes the EUR. A break in either direction out of this rectangle I will take the trade.

For the record, lumber appears to have had a blow off top. I do not trade these patters in general. These moves tend to retrace their entire run. This would bring lumber back to 2016 low.

The USD is about to break out from its ascending triangle.
A weekly close above 95 I will be going long.

There are two new trades I will be opening up Sunday night.
The first is the SP500.

It made a daily closing not seen in 4 months. It did not break out on the upside how I would have liked it, but it made 3 touches on the ascending triangle. It broke the resistance on the fourth and closed above the resistance. These are bullish developments. It looks like it wants to challenge its all time high.
Target is 2900 for now. Place your stop at 2773.5. This is a very tight stop and I run the risk of getting whipped out of the trade.

The second is the New Zealand Dollar.

It broke down from its rectangle formation. Just like the SP500, it did not break the support hard. However I will take the trade anyway.
Target is 0.6250. Place stop at 0.6845.

I indicated here that platinum would be a good candidate for a short if it broke down from its rectangle formation. It broke down and reached its target of 800 very quickly. Looks like some one ran the stops. Unfortunately, I was on vacation and missed this trade. Hopefully you got it.