Category: Trades

Bottom Almost Completed

Not quite, but close.
I am long gold. I did not think there would be the usually decline in the summer months. I need to see a weekly closing above 1405 to be confident this is the real deal.
The bullish case for gold is the fact that the fed is going to print money. They now call it the “symmetric 2 percent objective”. Soon enough it will be the “5 percent”. After all, 5 is better than 2…
Right now, the fed is shrinking the monetary base. I have no doubt that pressure from Trump and Mnuchin will reverse the shrinking monetary base. Election year is coming up and the economy needs another sugar high to ensure Trump’s reelection. This is nothing new. It has been going on for over a 100 years.
From the FOMC statment:

The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

Translation: We will print money if needed.

Gold-Up Against Resistance

Gold is back at the top of its trading range. This 1360-1380 area has capped rally for the past six years.

Longer term, we see this is a major hurdle.

I believe the market is discounting more QE from the fed. It will come in one form or another. The first sign of trouble the fed will expand its balance sheet. This is obvious to anyone who has been paying attention the last 20 years.

No Summer Doldrums This Year

The summer doldrums are the quiet months of trading during the summer months. Historically, these have been bad times for gold. This is about the time gold typically will decline from June right into August. Watching the price action, I think this year might be different.

I am long gold. I think gold will heat up this summer and catch traders off guard.

Cocoa Set to Rally

Cocoa broke out of its rectangle pattern. After 5 touches at 2425, it finally busted through resistance.

I went long at 2465 with a stop at 2400. Target is 2700.

Russell 2000 Trade

The Russell 2000 made a head and shoulder bottom. It looks ready to challenge the all time high. Given that the other major US stock market indices are above or near the all time high, this trade looks favorable.

It also made a mini H&S continuation pattern.

These are usually the best trades to make. Mini patters that launch into larger ones.
I went long at 1618.7 with a stop at 1585.

Platinum Trade Goes Bust

The Platinum trade was stopped out for a loss

I will be taking a break from trading this market for at least the rest of the year. I risked a lot more capital than usually. This cost me big.

Trades for the Week

I will be going long natural gas Sunday night.
The only problem is the cost of rolling from month to month is high.

However, I have become skilled at doing this and feel confident I will make a nice profit.

The Russell 2000 is making a head and shoulder bottom.

With a break above 1600, I will be going long. All the other major indices are knocking on their all time high. I suspect the Russell 2000 is not far behind.

Gold is making a head and shoulders top. I suspect it may break down to the 1240 area.