Category: Trades

The Platinum trade was stopped out for a loss

I will be taking a break from trading this market for at least the rest of the year. I risked a lot more capital than usually. This cost me big.

I will be going long natural gas Sunday night.
The only problem is the cost of rolling from month to month is high.

However, I have become skilled at doing this and feel confident I will make a nice profit.

The Russell 2000 is making a head and shoulder bottom.

With a break above 1600, I will be going long. All the other major indices are knocking on their all time high. I suspect the Russell 2000 is not far behind.

Gold is making a head and shoulders top. I suspect it may break down to the 1240 area.

In the post Forgone Trades, I discussed the head and shoulders bottom in crude oil. I did not enter the trade myself, but the target has been reached.

Platinum broke out of its bottom formation.

It launched from its bottom out of the apex.

Smaller patters that lead to a break out into larger patterns are the best trades in my experience.
I went long at 909.5. Stop is at 867. Target is 1000.
I have two comments on this trade.
First, emotions play a very important part in trading. I can not emphasis this enough.  Last year I lost a lot of money on platinum. The sign of a novice trader is the feeling that a market owes them. One of my trading rules is this: No given market owes me anything. This point cost me a lot of money when I first started. Before I took this trade, I reflected on this point.
Second, I do fundamental analysis. I look at supply and demand. However, my trading plan is technical. In other words, my plan does not rely on fundamental analysis. I have a bullish bias with platinum. I think it is forming a generational low and will start a bull market. I have detailed my view on the fundamentals of platinum at this site. See here. There is always the risk that fundamental analysis will corrupt your trading plan.
My goal is to trade my plan. The platinum trade fits ever one of my trading rules. I can not control what happens after I execute my plan.

Natural Gas is going back into the buy zone. As it gets closer to 2.50, it becomes a low risk high reward. I will follow the market to see a good entry point.

Platinum is forming a nice double bottom. The platinum market has not been nice to me. Once I enter the market, it does a 180. This has cost me a pretty penny over the last 18 months. However, this trade meets my plan. A break above $875, I will go long.

Wheat is  becoming a low risk high reward trade. At $4 a bushel, it is near a generational low in real terms.  I will be looking to go long as it approaches $4.00.

The British pound is forming a head and shoulders bottom. A break above 1.34, I will be going long.

The New Zealand dollar is forming an ascending triangle. A break above 0.695, I will go long.

Closed out the natural gas position.

Also closed out Citigroup and IWO.

There were two trades on my radar this past week. I did not take either.
Crude oil made a very sloppy head and shoulder bottom.

It has a target of 65. Calling this a head and shoulder bottom is a stretch in my book.
The second is a beautiful double bottom made by copper.

This has a target of 3.2. I don’t like trading copper or silver. They have way to much leverage and volatility for my liking.

Natural Gas is closing in on another bottom. This is about as close to a “low risk, high reward” as you get.

I went long at 2.668.

Looked like a perfect head and shoulder bottom. Did not amount to anything but a large loss.

DIJA short position and platinum short position both were closed out for a loss.