Category: Politics

Fragility of the World

A Fragile World
On June 23, 1914 the Royal Navy sailed into Kiel. British and German naval officers visited each other warships and broke bread together. A few days later, Archduke Franz Ferdinand had been assassinated. As British warships sailed off, the mast of the German warships flew the words “Pleasant Journey”. King Georgie V responded with a wireless message:
“Friends Today
Friends in the Future
Friends Forever”
A few months later, they would be exchanging bullets on the Western Front. What if the Austrians had not sought to exploit the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand? What if Serbia accepted the ten demands?
What if Czar Nicholas II had been forceful in rescinding his order for full mobilization? What if Germany had not actuated the Schlieffen Plan? What if Britain signaled to Germany it would enter the war should Germany attack France through Belgium?
What if cooler heads prevailed?
Fifteen million people died in WW1. All because of the ego of a few men.
Think about the series of event that cascaded because of WW1. Lenin was shipped back to Russia by Germany. What followed was mass deaths, gulags and Stalin’s reign of terror.  WWII was nothing but a continuation of WWI. The period between the two was a temporary cease fire. The Treaty of Versailles at the close of WW1 decimated Germany. One of Hitler’s early speech was on the Treaty of Versailles. He gave it often. It was popular. Hitler would have died unknown and broke in the slums of Vienna if not for WW1.

Current Events
There are time I wonder if the MSM is evil. Other times, I don’t wonder at all. Trump opened up dialogue with Putin. They held a summit. MSM had a meltdown. Republicans, Democrats and the Intelligence Community attacked Trump.  MSM acts as though the Intelligence Community has credibility. Even funnier, they believe they have credibility. What did we learn from the Gulf of Tonkin incident? What about the suppose weapons of mass destruction in Iraq that MSM was so quick to push with no evidence to get the US into a useless war? How about James Clapper lie that the NSA doesn’t spy on US citizens? Why should any one believe anything the Intelligence Community says? Ideas and words matter. The talking heads in MSM should reflect on the events that led to WW1. They need to understand how quickly conflicts can escalate. They are playing a very dangerous game for political purposes. I’m with Rand Paul on this.

 

What Americans Care About

My years of following polls have indicated the masses general follow the talking points of the day. For instance, in 2006 when news coverage was dominated by immigration reform, Americans cared about immigration reform in response to polls. When the economy took a nose dive in 2008, polls showed most people were concerned about the economy. Below is the June 2018 “What do you care about?” poll survey from Gallup.

Immigration has bubbled to the surface again over the past few years due to Trumps rhetoric.  What is interesting is that most people do not care about the Russian situation. This is despite 22 hours out of 24 hours dedicated to it by MSM.
The left/Democrats lost in the last two elections. They pushed to hard on silly social issues that no one cares about. Additionally, the PC crowd has become a nuisance to average Joe. This is why Trumps political incorrect (boorish?) tone helped him win the election.
A lot can happen between now and November, but at this point, a Democrat slam dunk is not guaranteed.

An Insiders View of Bailouts- 1982 Edition

The idea of bailing out banks is far older than the 2008 fiasco. During the next crisis, bailouts will come in one form or another. Secretary of the Interior under President Reagan gives an account from 1982 on third world countries not being able to repay their loans. From James Watt’s memoirs:

Secretary Regan was explaining the inability of those destitute countries to pay even interest on the loans that individual banks such as Bank of America, Chase Manhattan and Citibank Manhattan and Citibank had made. The President was being told what actions the United States “must” take to salvage the situation.
After the Regan and Stockman briefing there were several minutes of discussion before I asked, “Does anyone believe that these less developed countries will ever be able to pay back the principle on these loans?” When no one spoke up I asked, ” If the loans are never going to be repaid, why should we again bail out the countries and arrange payment for their interest?”
The answer came from several voices at once, “If we don’t arrange for their interest payments, the loans will go into default, and it could put our American banks in jeopardy.” Would the customers lose their money? No, came the answer, but the stockholders might lose dividends.
In amazement, I leaned back in my large, leather chair, only two seats from the President of the United States. I realized that nothing in the world could keep these high government officials from scrambling to protect and bail out a few very large and sorely troubled American banks.

Trump-The Money Printer Part II

Don’t think Trumps previous life as a builder has been lost on him. Trump will be very active with monetary policy. The only thing worse than a PHD being in charge of a central bank would be a politician. Trump is probably in the middle.
The problem is neither central bankers, nor politicians, nor Donald Trump know what interest rates should be. It is like asking, “What should be the price of Apples”? No one knows. The “market” takes care of it. Interest rates are a price, just like any thing else. The price of interest rates is the supply and demand of those who save and those who spend.

Russian Investigation Gets Crazier

For comic relief, I decided to read the 29 page indictment that the Mueller probe put out. Apparently, Russia operated a military intelligence agency called the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff (GRU). This intelligence agency hacked the DNC server and searched for certain words and phrases. From the indictment we find that they searched these words (I am not making this up):

Why would a specially trained Russian intelligence agency search these words? Specifically, the word “Illuminati”.
I also found this interesting:
“During the hacking of the DCCC and DNC networks, the Conspirators covered their tracks by intentionally deleting logs and computer files. For example, on or about May 13, 2016, the Conspirators cleared the event logs from a DNC computer.”
I find it extremely hard to believe that the DNC network does not have a SIEM. In which case, deleting the local logs would have been meaningless.
Either way, it is time to abolish the FBI.

The Correct Response to Tariffs

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland stated “we will not back down” in regards to US imposed tariffs on Canadian imports. Justin Trudeau’s government will apply a 25 per cent tariff on steel products, and 10 per cent on aluminum and consumer goods.
Politically, it would have been better if Justin Trudeau’s government lowered tariffs and issued the following statement:
“We do not want to hurt the citizens/consumers of Canada with higher prices. Therefore, in response to US raising tariffs ,we will be lowered tariffs across the board.”
This statement would have made headlines and put US officials on the defense when raising tariffs in the future. The Canadian government then should have posted the story of Stulta and Puera.
Putting aside all of the above, let me bottom line this:
The dollar value of total tariffs being discussed is less than 0.25% of US GDP. As of right now, the ‘trade war’ is a lot of hysteria.

Left Wing Billionaire Logic

Bloomberg thinks taxing poor people makes them live longer. The IMF gives this stupidity an audience. The audience applauds this stupidity.

Bloomberg has a very superficial understanding of nutrition. He is obsessed with what people are eating and drinking. In the field of nutrition, there is always a debate about “What is healthy” and “What is not healthy.” Over the years, the consensus constantly changes. There are many studies that say bacon is good. Other studies say bacon is bad. Bloomberg, who knows next to nothing about nutrition, wants to be the technocrat who decides. He is not a believer in “Live and let live”.

Joke of 2018

“I hear this term deep state all the time. There is no deep state, but there is a deep culture and a commitment to the rule of law, equal protection of the laws.”
James Comey