When to Look for the Exit

Irving Fisher was an economist is the early 20th century. He made the following statement:

Less than two weeks later, on October 29, 1929 (black Tuesday), the stock market imploded. This was considered the start of the great depression.
Joseph P. Kennedy Sr apparently exited the stock market right before the stock market crash of 1929 when his shoe-shine boy was telling him what stocks to buy.
Bernard Baruch gave the following account before the 1929 market crash:

Taxi drivers told you what to buy. The shoeshine boy could give you a summary of the day’s financial news as he worked with rag and polish. An old beggar who regularly patrolled the street in front of my office now gave me tips and, I suppose, spent the money I and others gave him in the market. My cook had a brokerage account and followed the ticker closely.

Fast forward to 2006. Ben Bernanke pulled an Irving Fisher.

It was not just him. Federal Reserve economist published paper after paper  saying there was no housing bubble. Some of them bordered on mocking those  who claimed there was a housing bubble. ‘The Big Short’ was a book based on a true story. It was turned into a movie. The below clip was no exaggeration on the madness.

I want to make two comments about present day.
First, we see the Businessweek cover page.

Larry Summers said the major industrial economies will be stuck with low inflation and low interest rates “for another 10 to 15 years, at least.” My view on the bond market and interest rates are more nuanced as I have detailed on this site.
Second, is the Silicon Valley craze. Real estate prices in that area have gone into the stratosphere. The median housing price to median income ratio are at levels that can not possibly last.
Almost all of the IPO’s last year were by companies that never posted a profitable year.

Not since the dot-com mania has this happened.

When the so called ‘experts’ and masses run to one side of the boat it is best to try to keep your wit. Silicon Valley and bond markets are bubbles in search of a pin. I do not think this bull market is over yet but a lot of complacency has set in. Do not get lost in the crowd. Keep your eye on the exit sign.

Globalist and the Fringe

Whenever I see the word “Globalist” in an article title, I know I should not continue to read it. It is bad for my mental health to continue. But like bad late night TV, sometimes I can’t help myself. Consider the recent article by alt-market entitled, “Globalist are Bringing Their One World Currency Plans Out Into the Open“. He states the following:

In the past I have said that when globalist criminals stop trying to hide their criminality – when they start to become brazen in their rhetoric and agenda, that is when it is time for people to worry. Why? Because when criminals act more confident it is usually because they think they have already gotten away with it. Their plans are almost complete.
Over the past year, the globalists have become absolutely brazen in flaunting their endgame for a single global currency system. Yes, it is time to be concerned. But there are people out there who will tell you that the notion is “far fetched”. They will tell you that it is “doom porn”, and they will tell you it is “conspiracy theory”.
The evidence says otherwise. The evidence says it is conspiracy FACT.

The rest of the article is rhetoric and assertions. He does not highlight any facts. He than begins to list what he considers fallacies.

Fallacy #1: The Globalists Need The Dollar To Maintain Power
This is patently untrue. The dollar is nothing, just like any other fiat currency system. It is a fabrication, a fantasy. Its value is an arbitrary product of manipulated forex markets. Its buying power has dwindled to a shadow of its former glory in the past century. The globalists have resided over the life and death of multiple reserve currencies, and the dollar is no different.

The dollar is a medium of exchange. When you go to the store and buy milk you use dollars. If the author believes the dollar is nothing, he would have no problem withdrawing his accounts and have a bonfire with them.
One of the greatest advancements in economic thought was the idea that all value is subjective. This theory was advanced by William Stanley Jevons and Carl Menger. This theory has been accepted by every school of economic thought. The author claims that this is not true. He claims that the USD value is an arbitrary product of manipulated forex markets. The forex market is the most liquid market in the world and has daily transactions in the trillions per day. In short, it is a massive free market of currency exchanges. Other countries peg their currency to the USD and intervene in the free-market. This is nothing new. These countries are subsidizing their export industry. They are hurting their citizens to help the American consumer. This, along with other factors, has resulted in the dollar dominating FX reserves.
This 60 plus percent share has been true for decades. The author does not show you this chart. He hints at it below, but does not show you the steady trend.

Fallacy #2: There Is No Other Currency Mechanism In The World That Can Take The Dollar’s Place
This fallacy relies on two assumptions – One, that no currency has the liquidity to match the dollar and fill the void in global trade if it were to fall. Two, the majority of reserves held in central banks around the world are denominated in dollars, therefore a replacement is unlikely because the world is “used to paying with dollars”.
First, liquidity is meaningless. Liquidity in any currency can be created on a whim. In fact, the Chinese have been ramping up the liquidity of the Yuan for the past ten years. Trillions in Yuan have been conjured from nothing, which is a development I have warned about repeatedly along with the Yuan’s inclusion into the IMF’s SDR basket.
This is not to say I think the Yuan will replace the dollar as the world reserve, far from it. That honor will go to another mechanism entirely, which we will discuss in a moment. The point is, fiat currencies are not limited by their liquidity, they are only limited by the restrictions that central banks set upon them. If global central banks decide in unison that they will dump the dollar as the world reserve and use another currency, then that is exactly what will happen. Liquidity can be created with the push of a button.
When one accepts the fact that the Bank for International Settlements dictates and coordinates the policies of all major central banks, then the idea that they might all drop the dollar as the world reserve at the same time becomes less difficult to grasp.
Second, as mentioned above, the vast majority of central bank forex holdings used to be in sterling, and yet, the sterling was toppled and the dollar became the world reserve very quickly.

Liquidity of the forex and currency pairs has to do with the amount of traders active in the market. The US dollar is the most actively traded currency. This is a fact. This is a function of the free-market.
First he says “liquidity is meaningless”. In the next sentence he says ” the Chinese have been ramping up the liquidity of the Yuan”. I am confused. Is it meaningless or not?
Just because a central bank creates more of a currency does not mean more people are going to trade it. If this was true, the Venezuelan bolivar would be the most liquid currency on the planet.
Why would central bankers get together to dump US dollars all at once? There is no reason why this would happen. These countries that peg to the US dollar are mercantilist. This keeps the US dollar as the king of FX reserves. The author gives no justification why central banks would coordinate to do this. He gives no indication why these mercantilist policies of foreign governments will end. This has been going on for almost a 100 years and there is zero signs of it changing.
Comparing the US to Britain after WW II is a leap. Europe was in ashes after WWII. The US, besides Pearl Harbor, was untouched. There is no parallel to the events that led to the Sterling losings its reserve status to the US dollar today.

Fallacy #3: The Globalists Already Have Total Control Through The Dollar, So Why Would They Change Anything?
This argument generally comes from people who have no understanding of the psychology of economics and the psychology of power.
First and foremost, the federal reserve and the dollar are merely a franchise of a larger system; they are but one tentacle writhing from the body of the globalist vampire squid. In the pyramid of banking power, the Fed is an errand boy, a workhorse, that is all. At the top if the pyramid sits the major global institutions which control policy, including the IMF, the BIS, World Bank and the UN.

Strictly speaking, economics does not have a psychology. Individuals have a psychology. Economics picks up where the study of psychology leaves it. An economist is only concerned that a person chooses “A” over “B”. Why a person chooses “A” over “B” is the job of the psychologist.
The BIS is a clearing house for central bankers. I don’t know what he means when he says the BIS controls policies. The UN, IMF and World Bank are gigantic bureaucracies. They have no teeth. Bureaucracies hate to be told what to do by other bureaucracies. This is why some central banks are expanding their balance sheets and other contracting. Do central bankers get together and talk to one another? Sure they do. But so what? This is nothing new.
He than makes the stupidest of all his claims. The SDR is going to become a world currency to replace the dollar.

The SDR’s role as a bridge is also being confirmed in the mainstream. In 2017, globalist Mohamed El-Erian called for the SDR to act as a structure for a one world currency system, and stated that this would be useful in combating “the rise of populism”.

The ‘value’ of the SDR, is primarily composed of US dollars. The author claims that the USD is going down. In the same article he claims the SDR, which a large component of its value is derived from the USD, is going to take its place. You see the logic in this?

Every ideology has a fringe. This is an example of the right-wing fringe. He is talking about a subject he knows nothing about. When you see the word “Globalist”, run for the hills.

Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets (EM’s) might be the place to be the next 12 months.

After nearly 10 years of sideways action, it made a perfect head and shoulders bottom in 2016. The Chinese government is cutting taxes across the board. The Chinese government is increasing its efforts to open its country to attract foreign money. Chinese officials understand how important capital inflows from outside investors is going to be over the next decade.
I believe the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates. Maybe one or two interest rate hikes over the next 18 months. Whenever investing in EM’s, a close eye should be kept on the USD.

Sideways or downside action in the USD will be bullish for the EM’s. If the USD takes a run to its decade high of about 103, this will put series pressure on EM’s.

I still like US stocks and tech companies. Facebook, Google, Cisco and Apple are  favorites of mine. I have had a very large holding in them for a long time.

Internet Censorship

It’s not going to happen. There will not be any ‘internet gulags’. The big tech companies have got into the censorship business. It is their platform. They have every right to do this. I have every right to criticize it. You have every right to accept or leave the platform.
First, I want to say I know nothing about these social media platforms. I don’t go on them. They are a huge time sync. My time is very valuable to me. I use Facebook for business purposes. I do not have time to argue with trolls on Twitter. Social media is not social. From the very little I see on Facebook, it is uninformed people posting uninformed opinions. Here is what I know. The free market is going to make the big tech companies pay.

The alternative to Twitter is Gab. Their mission statement makes their marketing plan clear.

Gab is not going to be involved in the censorship business. The users are small compared to Twitter. However, they are growing exponentially.

Tim Pool does an epic job of tearing up Twitter and their nonsensical  misgender polices.

We all know Twitter employees lean left. They should just own it and move on.

Duck Duck Go (DDG) is moving up as an alternative to Google. Its marketing statement is based on privacy.

Here is their traffic.

Up, Up and away!

Dissenter is adding another layer to the internet. It is a browser section that creates a comment section for any website. There is nothing website owners can do about this added layer. YouTube deletes comments. The free market adds it.

Where is the Federal Government on all of this? The show trials they had with Mark Zukerburg and the other tech giants shows how clueless they are.

Clueless=good!
The WSJ reported that the FCC has collected just $6,790 of $208 million it has fined robocallers. This is the sign of a bureaucracy losing legitimacy. A bureaucracy losing legitimacy is like a tiger losing its fangs and claws. It becomes a harmless cat.

The decentralization of information has changed the world forever. Technology is changing so rapidly no one can keep up with it. Least of all the Federal Government. These big tech companies are pushing their limits. All they are doing is annoying people. As quickly as Twitter rose, it can crash and burn. Gab AI Inc offers common stock. You can reserve stock in Gab’s next funding round. It is a new business venture and as such is a high risk investment. In the mean time, don’t stress the internet gulags. They are not going to happen.

Perk Up on Coffee

Coffee is about to start a bull market. This bear market will turn into a rip roaring bull market. Prices have fallen to a near 15 year low.

Depending on the variety of coffee, coffee beans from seeds to cup can take anywhere from 5-10 years. Coffee producers are struggling from the low prices. Production has increased year over year in South America for the past 5 years. The rest of the producing countries are flat. The demand side is where the action is going to be.

China is about to upset the supply and demand equations for coffee. Take a look at the YoY (Year-over-Year) change.

Asia is going to catch up with Europe in coffee consumption. Prices are in the dumps. Coffee producers are struggling. This is a recipe for a bull market.

Palladium Meets the Cliff

There is an important life lesson you should learn. If you did not learn it by the time you turned 13 let me tell you.
People do not know what they are talking about. You make money by betting against people who are sure of themselves. I warned here that palladium was going parabolic. It was time to sell. The cheerleaders never listen. They think investing is like finding a wife. You meet a nice gal, get married and grow old together. It is not like that. Investing is like dating the hot psycho girl. You are in it just for the ride. You need to get out before the restraining order.
At every market top, people give a million and one reasons to buy. In the commodities market, the idea of a “shortage” is popular. There are now endless articles on main stream sites claiming there is a shortage of palladium. The idea of a shortage should always be followed by three words: At what price? Every commodity is in shortage. If it was superabundant, it would have no price. The fact that a price manifest itself on the market, indicates it is in limited supply.
Calling the top in bitcoin was the easiest call I ever made. I called it to the very day. See here. Not only did it go parabolic, but I got at least a dozen phone calls from people asking me if they should buy it. I told them to read the book “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”. I told them it went parabolic and everyone was talking about it. This indicated the top was in. Those searching for ‘bitcoin’ using google, pegged out at 100 the day of the top. That was all you needed to know.

Palladium should get a nice bounce from this level. If it does not take out the previous high, look out below.

A Premier of State Bankruptcies

Pensions are going to bust the state of Illinois. Governor Pritzker is trying to solve the problem. The proposals are listed here. You will search in vain for the real solution to the problem. Namely, to declare bankruptcy and default on the unplayable pensions. The pension cost continue to consume a larger and larger share of Illinois revenue. Illinois legislators are going to sell state buildings, roads, highways, tollways etc to fund the pensions. This is a good thing. The less the state owns, the better.
Another proposal is to raise taxes. It will not solve the problem. People are leaving the state. Thirty years ago it was difficult to leave a state. You had to search in local papers and go to in person job interviews. The internet has changed all of this. Someone half way around the country can call a potential employee and offer them a job after a Skype interview. This has accelerated the exodus from high taxed states over the last decade.
Meanwhile, those expecting to get paid their pensions in full have no plan B. They do not think the checks will ever stop. Their argument?
The state constitution guarantees their pensions.  It’s the law!
News flash: when the well runs dry it does not matter what a bunch of bureaucrats wrote on a piece of paper.

Central Banks Ramp Up Purchasing

Central banks went on a gold buying spree in 2018.

Russia adds to its gold holding every month.

The Eastern block is adding to its reserves slowly. The demand side of the equation looks promising.
They are buying into weakness and are being quite about it.
On the opposite side of history is former UK Prime Minister, Gordon Brown. He sold half of UK’s gold reserve at the very bottom in the late 90’s and early 2000’s. To add to the stupidity, he actually announced he was going to be selling before he sold. The gold market plunged before the selling. This allowed the UK government to get the worst possible selling price. Always look for ways to profit from stupidity.

A Tale of Two Metals

Buy low. Sell high. Simple enough, no? Palladium is going parabolic. Take a look.

These types of moves usually go a lot higher before they end. A price of $1800 could be reached before this bull run is over. This is about the time you hit the “sell” button on Palladium.
On the other hand, Platinum gets no love.

There are a hand full of times in history where Platinum trades at a discount to Palladium.
South Africa accounts for about 80% of Platinum production. The South African government, at the direction of the people, is going into land confiscation mode. If you are looking for a low entry point and don’t mind holding it for a while this is the time to buy. A time will come to sell Platinum. It will start to look like the price action in Palladium.

Charting the US Governments Interest Expense

Interest expense for the US government has been on the rise.

As percent of revenue, it has been declining for decades even though the US government debt has exploded.

This is due to the 37 year bull market in bonds that started in January of 1982. If this bull market has concluded, as some have suggested, this will bust the US government due to the governments debt structure. I am not convinced this bull market has ended. A bull market like this will tend to have a climactic end. I suspect in the next recession bonds will rally to absurd heights (i.e. lower interest rates).  To many of the bond bears have crawled out from their 37 year cave to call an end to this market. It will end when the last bear has thrown in the towel. I don’t sense this has happened yet.