Charts on My Radar

The energy markets look to be putting in a top. A break below 93.5 and I will be going short Crude Oil.

The wheat market is putting in a H&S bottom or a possible H&S failure. I will be going long with a break above 1150. At this point, I would rather be long wheat than short.

Soybean Meal is putting in a H&S top or a H&S Failure. I would rather be short Soybean Meal than long.

Position Updates

I moved stops to lock in a nice profit on the Eurodollars short.

I am still short the 10-year. I keep advancing my stops to lock in more profits. As of right now, this is my most profitable trade of the year. It broke down from the H&S failure pattern and never looked back. Its orderly decline bound by the 14DMA keeps me onboard this trade.

The British Pound Dumps

I had shorting the Pound on my radar. I got the notification in the middle of the night but I did not have any orders in. I will be looking to short any rally, IF it comes.

Positions Going Into Weekend

I closed the remainder of the Real position and got stopped out of the SP500 for a small loss.

STOCKS
Symbol Position Date
Position
Opened
Price
Position
Opened
Week
Closing
Price
Percent
Change
AFG Long 4/6/22 146 145.04 -0.7%
CINF Long 3/18/22 130 137.26 5.3%
WMT Long 4/6/22 155 157.38 1.5%
Total Open Profit/Loss Stocks 6.1%
FUTURES
Symbol Position Date
Position
Opened
Price
Position
Opened
Week
Closing
Price
Percent
Change
GEU22 Short 4/19/22 97.575 97.255 0.33%
LE Long 4/21/22 151.375 151.08 -0.20%
ZN Short 3/9/22 126.5625 118.95 6.01%
Total Open Profit/Loss Futures 6.1%

Observation on US Stocks

US stocks appear to be making head and shoulder patterns. Whether it is a H&S bottom or H&S failure is yet to be seen. I may take a small long position with a break above 14354.

Short Euro Dollars

I am short the September 22 contract. It completed a small descending triangle. Normally, I would not take a pattern with less than a month duration but the trend is so strong downward. Stop is at 97.68 with a target of 97.2.

The Easiest Call I Ever Made-Inflation

Long before the “I” word (inflation) was fashionable, I began to issue warnings. On March 17th, 2020, I issued the first such warning with my post “Inflation Warning“. Followed by my post on May 7th 2020 with “Records Smashed“. I topped it off on June 6th 2020 with my post “Beware-Price Inflation“. Money and credit levels are still elevated. The Federal Reserve is going to react to these inflation prints. It is hard for me to believe they are going to keep pumping money like this. I am not dogmatic about the inflation/deflation debate. I let the money and credit numbers do the talking.