Author: s4k

So far this year I took a total of 80 trades. Of those 80 trades, 53 are losers, 12 are break even trades and 15 are winners. Which means my win rate is 18.75%. Despite my win rate, I am up over 40K on the year. I do this analysis mid-year and at the end of the year. I find the same thing each time: Pareto’s principle rules.
On a side note, I have not been trading any individual stocks lately. I began to hit a losing streak trading US stocks starting in May of 2021. When I go on a losing streak, I bet less per trade and become much more selective. Hence, the small losses in stocks. I call this the Ritchie Rule. You can read about it here.

STOCKS YEAR 2022
Symbol	Position	Price Position Opened	Price Position Closed	Realized Profit or Loss
AFG	Long	146	142	($464)
AFL	Long	58.55	62.72	$2,612
AMAT	Long	161	155	($600)
CINF	Long	130	130.5	$34
CME	Long	232.5	220.34	($486)
DE	Long	413.5	414.25	$30
FCX	Long	47.8	44.8	($600)
HIG	Long	75.3	73.8	($600)
MSFT	Long	298	280	($360)
PFSI	Long	71.2	69	($880)
TRV	Long	165.4	160.4	($600)
TSM	Long	128.84	124.84	($400)
UPS	Long	230	223.83	($616)
WMT	Long	155	152.51	($510)
Total Realized  Profit/Loss Stocks				($3,440)
FUTURES YEAR 2022
Symbol	Position	Price Position Opened	Price Position Closed
6C	Long	0.79395	0.79455	$300
6C	Long	0.7936	0.7891	($1,800)
6C	Short	0.7806	0.78562	($1,004)
6C	Short	0.775	0.78	($2,000)
6C	Short	0.77085	0.77775	($4,200)
6C	Short	0.76935	0.775	($2,280)
6E	Long	1.14225	1.1403	($1,124)
6E	Short	1.0947	1.0947	$25
6J	Short	0.008709	0.0087035	$274
6J	Short	0.0085765	0.0083	$11,024
6L	Long	0.2	0.215	$7,470
6N	Long	0.68725	0.6952	$80
6S	Short	1.0661	1.071	($2,450)
6Z	Long	0.064475	0.06375	($1,450)
CLZ23	Long	84.9	83.2	($3,440)
CLZ22	Long	95.91	95.93	$40
CLQ22	Long	106.5	106.5	($4,000)
CLQ22	Long	106	107	($4,000)
CL	Long	111.59	111.59	($4,000)
ES	Long	4782	4746.5	($600)
ES	Short	4215	4207.75	$145
ES	Short	4175.5	4275.5	($2,000)
ES	Long	4474	4432	($420)
GC	Long	1873.3	1853.3	($804)
GEZ24	Short	98.115	98.115	$1,350
GEU22	Short	97.575	97.42	$1,550
GEZ23	Long	97.06	97.06	($3,525)
GF	Long	172.4	170.5	($2,075)
GF	Long	172.85	172.5	($4,500)
HE	Long	121.7	122.075	$560
HG	Long	4.559	4.5	($2,950)
HG	Long	4.77	4.7	($3,500)
HG	Short	3.95	3.466	$24,174
KE	Short	773.5	788.5	($3,000)
KEZ22	Long	860	935	$13,550
LEQ22	Long	138.8	137.2	($2,560)
LEZ22	Long	151.375	151.075	($2,880)
MBT	Long	47570	45570	($800)
NKD	Short	26600	26650	($4,000)
NKD	Short	27200	27600	($4,000)
NQ	Short	15380	15666	($1,144)
PL	Long	1048	1030	($3,600)
PL	Short	870	878.8	($880)
RB	Long	3.45	3.37	($6,720)
RTY	Long	2125	2075	($500)
RTY	Short	2071	2060	($650)
RTY	Long	2130.5	2090	($1,815)
SI	Long	22.02	22.8	$1,560
SI	Short	20.615	20.615	($2,000)
SI	Long	21.4	21.5	$200
TN	Short	141.59375	142.59375	($4,000)
TN	Short	127.71875	125.5	$4,000
ZCU22	Long	547.5	560	$0
ZF	Short	118.56875	117.88	$1,986
ZL	Long	58.84	57.84	($2,400)
ZLZ22	Long	59.3	67.44	$16,608
ZL	Short	78.4	78.4	($3,840)
ZLZ22	Long	76.2	76.2	$200
ZL	Short	75	70	$12,000
ZM	Short	440	400	$13,800
ZN	Short	126.5625	120.38	$18,720
ZS	Long	1548	1520	($5,600)
ZSX22	Long	1570	1560	($4,000)
ZS	Short	1520	1550	($6,000)
ZW	Short	1020	1068	($4,800)
ZWZ22	Short	1027.5	859.75	$33,550
Total Realized  Profit/Loss Futures				$45,855

I only have one open position.

STOCKS
Symbol	Position	Date Position Opened	Price Position Opened		Week Closing Price	Percent Change
	Total Open Profit/Loss Stocks
FUTURES
Symbol	Position	Date Position Opened	Price Position Opened		Week Closing Price	Percent Change
6N	Short	7/5/22	0.61475		0.6177	-0.47%
	Total Open Profit/Loss Futures					-0.5%

I will be looking to short Soybeans (November Contract) as it approaches 1400 level. I will need to see some sign that it is going to stall out first.

Soybean Meal is forming a rectangle. I will be looking to go short Soybean Meal with a close below the 385 level.

Stops have been jammed to today’s high for copper.

Same for wheat.

Both of these moves look way overdone and they are close enough to the target. I am not willing to give back any profits on these two trades.

My stops for platinum have been moved to 880. I am very suspicious of this trade. The commercial short position is near the lowest its been going back 10 years. This is usually a sign of a bottom. Time will tell.

The New Zealand Dollar completed a descending triangle today. I am short with a stop at 0.62475 and a target of 0.57975.

I do not trade multi-year patterns but it sure looks like the US dollar wants to challenge its 2001 high.

STOCKS
Symbol	Position	Date Position Opened	Price Position Opened		Week Closing Price	Percent Change
						N/A
	Total Open Profit/Loss Stocks					N/A
FUTURES
Symbol	Position	Date Position Opened	Price Position Opened		Week Closing Price	Percent Change
HG	Short	6/22/22	3.95		3.609	8.63%
PL	Short	7/1/22	870		870	0.00%
ZWZ22	Short	6/22/22	1027.5		872	15.13%
	Total Open Profit/Loss Futures					23.8%

I am now short.

The bull moves in grains tend to end with a full retracement. I am still 100% short with my stops moved up to 971.50 to lock in profits.