Author: s4k

Recession Warning Part II

As I expected, money supply growth went negative.

This is a very rare event. You should hold off buying any illiquid assets such as housing. Move to as much cash as possible. The economy will look very different in four months.

Soybean Meal

Soybean meal broke out today. I have buy limits at 425 with a stop at 416 and a target of 455.

Position Update

I was stopped out of the 30-Year for a loss. I may have been premature on going long. I will take one more shot at this trade on another breakout.

My feeder cattle stops have been moved to 179.925.

Words from Richard Dennis

My trading plan is one of the most irrelevant factors of being a successful trader. Trading my plan and risk management are more important than my actual plan. Trading my plan when it dictates is my goal. I cannot control what happens after I execute my plan. Richard was a successful commodities trader in the 70′ and 80’s. Discipline is the keyword:

I always say that you could publish trading rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80 percent as good as what we taught people. What they couldn’t do is give them the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad.

An interesting book on the story of Richard Dennis and his underlings is here.

Positions Going Into Weekend

STOCKS
Symbol Position Date
Position
Opened		 Price
Position
Opened		 Week
Closing
Price		 Percent
Change
Total Open Profit/Loss Stocks
FUTURES
Symbol Position Date
Position
Opened		 Price
Position
Opened		 Week
Closing
Price		 Percent
Change
GEM26 Long 7/22/22 97.305 97.305 0.00%
GF Long 7/20/22 181 184.68 2.03%
ZB Long 7/22/22 142.84375 142.5 -0.24%
Total Open Profit/Loss Futures 1.8%

Long Euro Dollars

I am long the June 2026 contract of Euro Dollars. Stop is at 97.11 with a target of 98.01.

I will also be looking to go long the 30-year once a breakout occurs.

Interest rates may have put in a intermediate top.

Observations on US Stocks

US stocks might be finding a intermediate bottom here. I have no interest in being long or short any US stocks right now. Some of blue chips show signs of a bottom. This is just an observation. Observations are not positions. Some of these patterns are reversal ascending triangles. The others show falling wedge patterns. I rarely trade these patterns.  Reversal ascending triangles need to be at least 8 weeks long for me to consider. Falling wedges incorporate two things I hate: Trading diagonal patterns and trading against the trend.