Author: s4k

The Great “Crash” of 2018

The amount of hysteria displayed among all parties is astounding. The market is down less than 10%. Yet even the white house chimed in on the down stock market. The correction approaching is long over due. I said so here and here. I also believe this correction is going to last a few weeks. Below are some charts of the Dow.

The first issue is the amount of small speculators who are wildly bullish. This is the “dumb” money. Second the RSI hit above 90. As far as I remember, I have never seen it this high.
The market is in the process of unwinding this overbought condition. It will take time. Further down side is to be expected. This should be used as a time of accumulation. The elements of a 2008 style recession are just not there. The market is ever changing. Therefore, my opinion is subject to change. A few months from now conditions could be different. Especially if the Fed begins to unwind its balance sheet.

Swiss Franc Breaks Out

Why I like this trade.
1- Two touches at the bottom and the third touch at top it busted through forcefully.
2- It is going with the trend.
3- It closed out at a high it hasn’t seen in over 2 years.
4- Markets are correcting. People consider the Swiss Franc as a safe haven in times of panics.
Place your stop at 1.05. It looks like the target is 1.15.

On The Radar

Leans Hogs looks like it wants to make a massive head and shoulders bottom. We wont go long unless it breaks the trend line.

The Memo

Snowden has the best take on the memo.
We were told it was top secret and shouldn’t be released to the public because of the danger it poses. Read it yourself and see if you agree with that assessment.

The Great Unwind

Thought it would be instructive to take a snapshot of some highlights of the federal reserves balance sheet before the great unwind. Than added the massive deficits the Trump administration is going to run. This is more than just bad timing.
Notice they have no treasury bills. There U.S treasury securities are just notes and bond. There is going to be massive pressure on the long end of the yield curve.
Some are saying this is just another head fake by the fed. If you pay close attention to all the FOMC ( see here, here, and here) you can see they started what I will call “Phase 1”. Additionally, in their recent speeches and talks, they are getting more vocal about what they are going to do. I believe this time they will actually attempt to execute their plan. The odds of this going off smoothly and without any hiccups are close to zero.