The Japanese Yen broke out. Put stop at 0.92
Looks like it is targeting 1.0000.
The reason I like this trade is the third try it broke out. In my experience, these chart formations tend to move right to there target.
Author: s4k
Closed out VWO
Closed out VWO
Stopped Out
Bitcoin Short got closed out.
Is the Great Bond Bull Dead?
Lots of chatter that the bond bull market that started in the early 80’s might be over. Here is a long term perspective.
The 10 year is closing in on 3%. It has been a few years since it has seen this level. Will Trumps massive deficits and the Feds QT kill it? Fundamentally, there has been no reason to go long this market for the past 10 years. However, it is the best of the worst at the moment considering other countries in the western world are closing in on zero. I don’t believe this bull is dead. Before it is over the USA might see negative rates. The perception of the market participants has not changed. The first sign of trouble, investors jump right back in. One day, some one will make a fortune shorting this market. I don’t believe the time has come yet.
CPI Jumps
The fed is way behind the curve. They are going to let the economy run on the hot side.
Zimbabwe II
Watching South Africa turn into Zimbabwe is sad. However, it is self inflected by the South African people. Zuma seems to be on his way out.
Their central bank and government officials seem hell bent on destroying the currency and economy. In this respect, they are no different than all the other countries. The ANC seems smart enough not to nationalize the mining industry. This is a good thing.
The EFF is a small political movement in favor of nationalizing mining. In times of crisis, political movements can become majorities very quickly. South Africa becomes more political unstable each day. Buying platinum is like buying a put option that never expires on the stupidity of SA’s government.
Fiscal Insanity
The Office of Management and Budget just released the fiscal year 2019 budget details. Here is my summary (some dollar amounts are excluding mandatory spending).
| Department | Request | Increase/Decrease from the 2017 Enacted Level |
| Department of Agriculture | $19 Billion | -16% |
| Department of Commerce | $9.8 billion | +6% |
| Department of Defense | $686 billion | +13% |
| Department of Education | $59.9 billion | -10.5% |
| Department of Energy | $29 billion | -3% |
| Department of HHS | $68.4 billion | -21% |
| Department of Homeland Security | $46 billion | +8% |
| Department of HUD | $39.2 billion | -18.3% |
| Department of Interior | $11.3 billion | -16% |
| Department of Justice | $28 billion | -1.2% |
| Department of Labor | $9.4 billion | -21% |
| Department of State | $25.8 billion | -26% |
| Department of Transportation | $15.6 billion | -19% |
| Department of the Treasury | $12.3 billion | -3% |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $83.1 billion | +11.7% |
| Corps of Engineers | $4.8 billion | -20% |
| EPA | $5.4 billion | -34% |
| National Aeronautics and Space Administration | $19.6 billion | +2.6% |
| Small business Administration | $834 million | -5.9% |
All of these departments represent a minor cost to the US government, besides the DOD. The elephant in the room is the sacred cows of entitlements. No one talks about those.
The left is going to go into overdrive about this. Expect it to be the media talking point for the next few days:
“Critical investments include $1.6 billion for construction of the border wall and $782 million to hire and support 2,750 additional law enforcement officers and agents at U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The Budget also requests $2.5 billion for detaining up to 47,000 illegal aliens on a daily basis.”
Now on to the projected deficits.
Back to trillion dollar deficits, which have not been seen since the 2008 recession. Notice the deficits start to decrease 4 years out. How convenient.
Now for the projection of total US debt, which is based on a lot of optimistic assumptions. Low interest rates, no recession, etc.
Browsing the internet we find that conservative web sites are silent on this issue. The left, rightly, is pounding on the hypocrisy of this silence.
Note to Trumpbots: Nothing has changed.
Market Update
Major indexes have worked off some technical overbought conditions on the daily chart. The market is neutral at the moment. Waiting to see how it acts the next few weeks.
How to Get Into the 1% by State
Yearly salary required to get into 1%
#METOO
Movements have ideas. Ideas have consequences. A simple accusation can now destroy a mans career. What will be the consequences of the #METOO movement?
1- Employers will be less likely to hire women.
2- No one will meet with women alone in the business world. A chaperone will need to be present for each meeting.