How crazy is the San Francisco’s housing market?
The median sale price of all homes is 1.3 million dollars. The median household income is about $80K. This puts the median sale price to median household income at a ratio above 16. I have never seen the ratio this high before. In 2006, these ratios were 10. I thought the housing market was a bubble than.
So how long are they sitting on the market before they sell?
Less than 60 days. This is called “selling high”.
I do not understand why people would move there. This can not last.
Author: s4k
Bitcoin Mining Less Profitable
I posted a question a few months ago about bitcoin mining. If the price of bitcoin falls below cost of validation would owners pay others to validate the block chain? Now we have reports that bitcoin miners are becoming less profitable due to the falling price. This fundamental flaw in bitcoin has been overlooked by the fan boys. This problem will be the death blow to bitcoin.
Trading the Symmetrical Triangle
From the classic book, “Technical Analysis of the Futures Market” by John Murphy, he gives an example of a symmetrical triangle trade.
My plan dictates I can trade these. My experience is one of many failures. They usually do not go according to plan. After the break out they tend to linger around.
Let us look at the SP500. The moment it broke out it went right back to test the trend line.
Another case is the Dow.
The Dow more closely fits with classic charting since it has the 6 touches required. I don’t plan on trading this even though my plan dictates I can. What most likely will happen to the Dow is the same thing that happened to the SP500.
Symmetrical triangles usually do not break the trend line and go right to its target. Additionally, the further it goes into the apex the less likely it will wind up being a symmetrical triangle.
I prefer trading ascending and descending triangles.
Trends of Success
The trend that will propel FNV higher.
Tariffs for Nationalism
The Trump administration passed the steel and aluminum tariffs under the guise they pose a risk to US national security. Sometimes facts get in the way of how people think.
Let’s start with steel. The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates the US produced about 80 million metric tons of steel in 2017. The military uses less than 3% of that per year. This is despite the fact the US government is involved in endless wars around the world. In other words, US companies produce more than enough steel for the military-industrial complex.
Let’s us move on to aluminum. In order to make aluminum you need bauxite. Of all the bauxite mined, about 95% is converted to alumina for the production of aluminum metal. The largest producers of bauxite are Australia (31.3%), China (24.6%), Brazil (13.2%), India (9.5%), Guinea (7.5%), and Jamaica (3.2%). You should take note that the US is not a top producer of bauxite. The US relies on imports for almost 100% of its consumption needs. Domestic ore provides less than 1% of the US requirement for bauxite. If aluminum really was an issue of national security, which it is not, than the US government would still be dependent on imports for bauxite to make aluminum.
Being Behind in Life
Ray Kroc was a milk shake mixer traveling salesman. He heard about the McDonald brothers after they bought eight of his mixer machines. Ray Kroc drove across the country to visit them in person. After the visit, he became convinced the business model the McDonald brothers had developed could spread across the country. He got the idea to franchise McDonald’s. What most people don’t know is how late in life he did this. He was in his fifties. He risked his home to open his first McDonald’s in Des Plaines, Illinois. He faced financial ruin if his McDonald’s failed. As people get older, their is a tendency to become more conservative with regards to taking risk like this. Seeing the opportunity is one thing. Acting takes a lot more courage. A lot more conviction in your idea.
Ray Kroc became the most successful businessman in the 20th century.
If you are feeling behind in life, watch one of the greatest upsets in Olympic history.
Got them in the last lap.
Cocoa- Close Enough
Cocoa trade has been closed out.
Another Down Leg Coming
Bitcoin has a failed head and shoulder bottom and a double top. This market is going to test the $6000 low made in February.
It has also decoupled from the general stock markets. The price action since February has looked suspicious to me. I suspect some big players are painting the tape.
The Crowd
Gustave Le Bon on the masses:
“The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim”
BOOM!
Nasdaq makes all time high.
The break out to an all time high was forceful.
Don’t listen to the bears.