Author: s4k

NG and JPY

Natural Gas position has been closed at a profit.
The Japanese Yen position has been closed. The trade failed to materialize.

New Zealand Dollar Trade

The New Zealand dollar is very close to breaking major support. I will be looking to trade this if it breaks down. I will also take the trade on the long side if it breaks resistance at .74 on the upside. Just waiting for a break in either direction.

Is the Nasdaq Putting in a H&S Top?

Although from a fundamental perspective I believe stocks are going higher, I do not let it impact my trading plan in the futures market.
Presented below is a possible H&S top forming in the Nasdaq.

H&S tops and bottoms are one of the most reliable trades in my experience. Even more reliable is the failed H&S pattern. A failed H&S top would be if the Nasdaq touches the 6400 level and turns back from it and takes out the right shoulder. Failed H&S tops and bottoms are the most profitable trades.

Housing Boom Continues

YOY median sale price for housing is up 8.9% compared to last year. The largest increase in 4 years.

The economy is strong. This trend will continue.
Wall street and market analysis are filled with permabears and permabulls. Very few understand cycles.

Earnings Blow Out

Earning continue to beat estimates. Via market watch:

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported higher profit and revenue from a year ago, catching the wave of lower taxes and newly active markets that boosted other big banks’ quarterly earnings.
Revenue at the Wall Street firm rose to $10.04 billion from $8.03 billion a year ago. Goldman’s profit was $2.83 billion, or $6.95 a share, up from the year-ago first quarter when the bank’s traders made bad bets on the dollar and interest rates.
Analysts, on average, were expecting earnings of $2.21 billion, or $5.58 a share, on revenue of $8.74 billion, according to Thomson Reuters.

Earnings will continue to surprise based on strong global growth, strong US growth, and the massive tax cuts to US corporations. Beginning in May, many companies will begin to buyback their stocks. Strong earnings next quarter in addition to stock buybacks will be very positive to stocks.

Feed Cattle Stopped Out

The Feeder Cattle position got stopped out. The market retested the resistance but happen to touch my stop. My only regret on this trade was not moving my stop to 135. I like to break even when the trade moves 25% in my direction. It went 50% of the way there and I did not move my stop.