Author: s4k

Bailed on Aussie Dollar

I bailed on this market. It flirted with my stops early morning. I have no interest in a market that breaks down and hangs around the breakdown point.

Possible Trades

The SP500 broke down from a head and shoulder top. I have an interest in being short this market.

I also have an interest in being long AFL and COST if they break out to the upside.

Any position in stocks will be very small. There just does not seem to be any follow through with US stocks on breakouts. They tend to linger around breakout points and/or do hard retests.

Silver looks set to breakdown from its triangle. I am considering a short position if it does.

The Aussie dollar is forming a small rectangle. I have a desire to be short if it breaks down.

Below is a chart for educational proposes. Orange juice just completed its multiyear rectangle. I rarely trade OJ or multiyear patterns. Just found it interesting.

Stay Being Smart

Commodity bull markets (especially in the grains) are short lived. The moment people start talking about a commodity bull market, it is over. They are not like stocks or bonds. Stocks and bonds go into multidecade bull and bear markets. My original post on being smart discussed the wheat market.

There are perma bulls in the commodity markets. They talk about food shortages. As I discussed here, this is not going to happen. When wheat was trading above 1200, they were saying it had a long way to go. It did indeed… on the downside. At every top, there are a thousand reasons experts give that it will keep going higher. Here is my rule: When the price goes vertical, it is time to sell. When the experts say, “This time is different”. It’s not. It’s just another top.

Positions Going Into Weekend

STOCKS
Symbol Position Date
Position
Opened		 Price
Position
Opened		 Week
Closing
Price		 Percent
Change
Total Open Profit/Loss Stocks 0.00%
FUTURES
Symbol Position Date
Position
Opened		 Price
Position
Opened		 Week
Closing
Price		 Percent
Change
PL Long 9/21/23 925 915 -1.08%
ZL Short 9/22/23 58.5 55.85 4.53%
Total Open Profit/Loss Futures 0.00%

Gold Breaks Down

Gold broke down from a symmetrical triangle. I have no interest in trading this from the short side. Target is 1800. All of the other metals are at major support. This is most likely going to be a false breakout.