Commodity bull markets (especially in the grains) are short lived. The moment people start talking about a commodity bull market, it is over. They are not like stocks or bonds. Stocks and bonds go into multidecade bull and bear markets. My original post on being smart discussed the wheat market.
There are perma bulls in the commodity markets. They talk about food shortages. As I discussed here, this is not going to happen. When wheat was trading above 1200, they were saying it had a long way to go. It did indeed… on the downside. At every top, there are a thousand reasons experts give that it will keep going higher. Here is my rule: When the price goes vertical, it is time to sell. When the experts say, “This time is different”. It’s not. It’s just another top.