On the Radar

AFL is about to break out from its rectangle. It is perfect in its duration. Notice the strength as it approaches its resistance. I would like to think this will be one for the books. Generally, I would put on full risk for this pattern. However, US stocks have not been kind to me since May.

Soybean Oil is breaking down. It touched my stops and did a 180 degree turn. This is the frustration with these large symmetrical triangles. I am still bearish and will be looking to short on a rally.

The continuation chart flashed a sell signal Friday. I have been very frustrated by Soybean Oil this year. It is probably best I just leave it be.

The Eurodollars (Dec 24 contract) is still working on its massive top. The entire bond market looks set for another down leg. I have a bias to be short bonds.

Finally, a picture of what a Head and Shoulder top looks like. Something tells me the Oat bull market is over. I will be looking to short with a close below the 685 level. I rarely trade markets that have daily volume below 5,000. I am going to make an exemption in this case. I am open to the view that this will be a failed H&S pattern and go on to make new highs. I do not think this will be the case though for two reasons.
1- open interest is declining with price. This indicates that the longs are becoming discouraged and willing to sell to the shorts at lower and lower prices.
2- the calendar spreads in this market have been showing the front months to be week relative to the back months. This is not a good sign.