Political analysis talk about the coming violent revolution. The civil war around the corner. At least once a week I read such an article. Both the left and right wing indulge in such fantasy talk. There are three questions that should be asked when you read such an article:
Who is going to fight?
Where will it be fought?
What weapons will be used?
If you ever read an article about the coming revolution or civil war, keep these questions in the back of your mind. If the author does not address them, you can safely disregard the article.
They believe social media and open source technology are paving the way to a revolution. It is not. The greatest political upheaval in the modern western world were the Revolutions of 1848. You can read about it here. It started in early 1848 in France. It spread through 50 countries in Europe. Some of them were nationalist in nature. Others were socialist in nature. It was a whole bunch of uncoordinated revolutions. Facebook, Twitter and YouTube did not exist in 1848. Revolutions are about centralizing power. This is true of every revolution, including the American Revolution. Even the clueless Fredrick Engels understood this. He wrote a paper ‘On Authority’ discussing this. You can read it here. Social media and open source technology are having a decentralizing effect. That is why there will be no revolution.
The revolutionary mindset existed since at least the 1780’s. Its origin is placed in the cafés of the Palais-Royal. Less than 10 years later, the French Revolution started. This philosophy died in the 1970’s. During this time there were full time revolutionaries. They were committed to violence. These revolutionaries were usually exiled to one of three countries: The United States, England, and Switzerland. Lenin was exiled to Switzerland for a time. Marx found his home in London where he died. It is an astonishing fact that these three countries were immune from the revolutionary faith and revolutionaries. They never gained any traction in these countries. Étienne Cabet led his followers to America in 1848 and settled in Texas. They then moved to Illinois. Cabet died in 1856 with virtually no followers left. The only series movement of revolutionaries to reach America was the First International. This did not happen until 1872. The First International fell apart in Philadelphia in 1876. Hardly anyone in America even noticed.
And now someone wants me to believe that a revolution is going to start in the USA? By whom? A bunch of coach potatoes that watch Netflix? The last remnants of the revolutionary faith is seen with Antifa. I can summarize these people in one word: Losers. They are exactly how you imagine them. Smoking pot in their mother’s basement. They do not have any power. They will never have power. Political movements need a face. Everyone in Antifa wears a mask. In short, they are a joke. Shayne Hunter is an ex-antifa member. He gave a fascinating interview here. He tells you how laughable they are.
Revolutions vs Riots
Revolutions are not riots. Riots are not revolutions. They are different. Very different. People point to riots and shout, “Look, the revolution has already started. The civil war is here”. Riots have always occurred. They are a common occurrence throughout history. You can read about the endless riots throughout history here. These are only the ones that we know about. Revolutions are centrally organized. People need to be organized politically. Revolutionaries are committed to risk everything. Revolutionaries cannot be bought off. They are ideologically committed. They are extremely disciplined. They are in it for the long haul. Consider the scene from the Godfather II.
The exact opposite is true of rioters. Rioters are not committed to any cause. They do not believe in anything deeply enough to sacrifice their life for it. They are easily bought off. They have no long term plan. Riots do not last very long. Eventually they burn out. Everyone goes home. They mount their new 55” flat screen TV they lifted from Walmart in their living room. They wait for the next opportunity to do it again. Rinse, wash, repeat.
The wave of the future is not a revolution. The decentralization of information is challenging the legitimacy of every institution. Blog by blog. YouTube video by YouTube video. Facebook post by Facebook post. The legitimacy of the media, the universities and central governments are being revoked. This is going to lead to one outcome: secession. Secession through non-cooperation with central governments.
The legitimacy of Washington DC will not be fully revoked until the money stops flowing. It does not matter how badly the federal government screws up. It does not matter how many boondoggles and scandals that are amplified by digital media. The internet has paralyzed Washington DC, but the public still shows up with their hands out. Over the past 100 years, Uncle Sam has become Uncle Sugar Daddy. Nobody likes to upset Uncle Sugar Daddy. Uncle Sugar Daddy provides all the goodies-Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare. When Uncle Sugar Daddy’s checks start to bounce, he will lose legitimacy. Why would you listen to Uncle Sugar Daddy when the goods stop flowing? What leverage will Uncle Sugar Daddy have? At this point, politics will become radically decentralized. This is going to bring the greatest advancement of freedom across the entire western world. The trends are pointing toward freedom and liberty.