I am in the camp that Trump is going to win in an electoral college landslide. I have a few reasons for this.
First, outside of the polls, what other metric do you see showing Biden winning? None. When you look at enthusiasm, crowd sizes, TV ratings, online comments, they all point to a much more energetic base coming out for Trump.
Second, when you do any deep dive into these polls you immediately see the problems. I am not a pollster, but it makes no sense to target just registered voters. Polls like this one are just garbage.
Third, Trump’s approval rating is right in line with a reelection.
Now the difficult question is this-how will the market react to a Trump win? I think we will see a small pop in the market. So for aggressive traders, here is what I would do. I would go long the SP500 now with a stop at 3200.
Additionally, I would go long the DOW now with a stop at 26K.
Update 11/3/20 3:10 PM :
Given the large move upward, I have moved all of my stops to lock in a small profit. This rally looks like the market is pricing in a Biden win. I say that because the healthcare stocks seem to be the big driver. Which makes me wonder if a Trump win will actually move the market upward.