Not quite, but close.
I am long gold. I did not think there would be the usually decline in the summer months. I need to see a weekly closing above 1405 to be confident this is the real deal.
The bullish case for gold is the fact that the fed is going to print money. They now call it the “symmetric 2 percent objective”. Soon enough it will be the “5 percent”. After all, 5 is better than 2…
Right now, the fed is shrinking the monetary base. I have no doubt that pressure from Trump and Mnuchin will reverse the shrinking monetary base. Election year is coming up and the economy needs another sugar high to ensure Trump’s reelection. This is nothing new. It has been going on for over a 100 years.
From the FOMC statment:
The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.
Translation: We will print money if needed.