Irving Fisher was an economist is the early 20th century. He made the following statement:
Less than two weeks later, on October 29, 1929 (black Tuesday), the stock market imploded. This was considered the start of the great depression.
Joseph P. Kennedy Sr apparently exited the stock market right before the stock market crash of 1929 when his shoe-shine boy was telling him what stocks to buy.
Bernard Baruch gave the following account before the 1929 market crash:
Taxi drivers told you what to buy. The shoeshine boy could give you a summary of the day’s financial news as he worked with rag and polish. An old beggar who regularly patrolled the street in front of my office now gave me tips and, I suppose, spent the money I and others gave him in the market. My cook had a brokerage account and followed the ticker closely.
Fast forward to 2006. Ben Bernanke pulled an Irving Fisher.
It was not just him. Federal Reserve economist published paper after paper saying there was no housing bubble. Some of them bordered on mocking those who claimed there was a housing bubble. ‘The Big Short’ was a book based on a true story. It was turned into a movie. The below clip was no exaggeration on the madness.
I want to make two comments about present day.
First, we see the Businessweek cover page.
Larry Summers said the major industrial economies will be stuck with low inflation and low interest rates “for another 10 to 15 years, at least.” My view on the bond market and interest rates are more nuanced as I have detailed on this site.
Second, is the Silicon Valley craze. Real estate prices in that area have gone into the stratosphere. The median housing price to median income ratio are at levels that can not possibly last.
Almost all of the IPO’s last year were by companies that never posted a profitable year.
Not since the dot-com mania has this happened.
When the so called ‘experts’ and masses run to one side of the boat it is best to try to keep your wit. Silicon Valley and bond markets are bubbles in search of a pin. I do not think this bull market is over yet but a lot of complacency has set in. Do not get lost in the crowd. Keep your eye on the exit sign.