The US economy is still strong and the US market is still my favorite. I have opened up a few recommendations in the performance tab. The market had a nice rally off the lows and took out strong overhead resistance. While the middle part of the yield curve has inverted, it is still profitable for banks to borrow short and lend long. There is nothing I see in the data that indicate stress in the banking system. Europe is still a mess. Emerging markets might be a buy later in the year.
Trade tensions between China and the US will eventually ease. This might reduce volatility in 2019. We are probably in the eight inning of this up turn in the business cycle. Until I see signs of stress, I will not issue a warning of a recession. The housing market is cooling. It was long overdue.