A surrey was conducted by the University of Michigan Survey Research Center on what people perceived inflation to be in the past and what they expect inflation to be in the future. Surprise, surprise. Overall, what people perceived in the past is what they expect in the future.
People think in a “linear” fashion. They take their past experiences and project them out to infinity. Most people miss the trend change. Whether these trend changes be the stock market, housing prices, government rule or crime dropping is irrelevant. Inflation can change very rapidly. Empirical data from the past shows this to be true. When you discuss the impact of the improbable, the question should be asked, “improbable to who?”