This market correction may last longer than previous ones. Downward and sideways action might be in the cards for 2019. Lots of markets around the world appear to be making topping patterns. China, Taiwan, India, Germany and the US look set to fall further. Investors and traders seem to be worried about China and Europe. There is nothing I see that suggest a 2008 style event will occur in the near future (6 months or so).
Excesses are building but nothing indicates stress is forming. The next recession will be one for the history books as the rubber band continues to get stretched.
Delinquency rates continue on a downward trajectory. If there was any stress, it would begin to manifest itself in the data.
On the money supply note, small-time deposits ( a small component of M2 money supply) continue to have massive growth.
After nearly eight years of being negative, it turned positive in the spring of 2017. One important reason for this is rising interest rates.
Rising interest rates also explain the draining of excess reserves.
Banks are putting this money to use. The fed currently pays a 2.2% interest rate on excess reserves. Since this 2.2% is risk free, banks believe they are finding better deals elsewhere. Rising interest rates in the US are going to reverse a lot of trends that have been set for the past decade.