From the 2017 Financial Report of the United States Government:
“Eventually, however, spending on net interest is projected to become the largest category of spending in both the Statement of Long-Term Fiscal Projections and GAO’s simulations.”
First, a snapshot of where the US government is with regard to spending and revenues is given below.
The projected chart below shows the future as a percentage of GDP.
I am not a fan of these projections. I think comparisons related to the GDP are dubious. Linear projections into the future are mostly always wrong. No one knows what interest rates will be in 2 years let alone in 2050. Additionally, there will be plenty of recessions between now and 2090 that will impact government revenue. Having said all of that, the chart above will give you a sense of the trouble ahead.
The debt will continue to grow. The interest expense on the debt will become unsustainable. Net interest will consume a large portion of the government revenue. As long as interest rates remain low, the game will go on.
The side show happening in D.C. is just that- a side show. As the crisis unfolds, the rhetoric in D.C. will reach critical mass. You should not pay attention to any of it. It might last another 10 years. The chances of it lasting another 30 years seem unlikely. I am optimistic about the future. When a governments goes bust it is an opportunity. An opportunity to explain to people what happened.